The premiere of Survivor 48 kicked off with two hours of key insights into each of our 18 new castaways and the immediate connections they made (or lack thereof) with their tribe mates. Lines were formed in the sand and—as we've historically seen with such small beginning tribes—the tide is unlikely to mess with them until after the merge when the numbers grow and relationship changes become more critical to gameplay.
Most specifically, with Vulu voting out the first player of the game (spoilers below), we have a very clear understanding of the tribe's alliance and potential future pecking order.
So, who do we suspect will find a spot on the Survivor 48 merged tribe?
Kyle Fraser
Kyle started the game by making a pretty big blunder and essentially having to forfeit his attempt to get supplies for his tribe. But by the grace of Survivor, he was lucky enough to make this mistake without his entire tribe present and immediately rectified it through earning the respect of Kevin Leung by helping the opposing tribe's member finish the challenge and win his supplies.
Five minutes into the game, Kyle has an ally on the other side, and there's no doubt in my mind his social game is going to keep him around for a while.
Chrissy Sarnowsky
We didn't get too much time with Chrissy in this episode, but that leads me to believe she's going to be a fairly under the radar player in exactly the way she needs to be: a workhorse at camp and in the challenges, a listening ear to all her tribe mates, and not stepping on top of any voices that feel the need to be leader.
This is going to easily get her to the merge and even further in the game beyond that.
Eva Erickson
Eva voiced multiple times throughout the episode, in both her confessionals and in conversation with tribe mates, her fear of being unable to tell when people are lying to her due to her autism. But I think out of that fear stems her greatest superpower in the game: authenticity.
I wouldn't be surprised if she has one of the greatest social games of the season, which was already demonstrated through the touching moment she and Joe officially aligned. This is going to definitely get her to the merge, and hopefully to the end, if I have it my way!
Joe Hunter
As I mentioned above, Joe and Eva shared a really beautiful moment that secured a strong, day one alliance. They are a solid duo very similar to Survivor 47's Sue Smey and Caroline Vidmar since it stems from a reminder of the parent/child bond they know outside of the game.
Their trust in each other will keep them solid until the merge simply due to the small number of tribe mates. So long as they have each others' backs, and the Lagi tribe keeps winning, they should be good!
Sai Hughley
If the Vulu tribe was smart, they would have voted out Sai first over Stephanie Berger because she currently holds all the power to run this game.
Sai has an immunity idol and a guaranteed vote in ally Cedrik McFadden, which all but lines up her red-carpet entrance to the merge. Even if they continue to lose, the numbers are on her side until the tribes all come together. That is when I worry her right-out-the-gate strategy might turn around and be her downfall...
Thomas Krottinger
Besides the fact that Lagi seems to be the tribe to beat, Thomas found a day one alliance with Bianca that is definitely going to hold strong to the merge. The two of them together—knowing his background in the music industry and hers in public relations—could be a force to be reckoned with, especially if they have each other for accountability. But I predict a strong future if they can stick together, which definitely includes a trip to the merge feast.
Bianca Roses
My initial predictions for Bianca included her making the merge, but now that she's aligned with Thomas, I have absolutely no doubt about it. The two of them together have full potential to run this show and I can't wait for the paranoia episode where the entire merged tribe is freaking out while the two of them are casually whispering this and that around camp, stirring the pot to get the exact result they want, orchestrating a blindside. It's going to be epic.
In the new era of Survivor, we've seen around 10-12 players make the merge each season and due to the small sizes of the starting tribes and the subsequent challenge power dynamic that comes from losing, it's not uncommon for many of the members who make the jury to have never once gone to Tribal Council.
We're only one episode in, so who's to say what will happen, but at this rate, it's possible we'll also see Shauhin Davari and Star Toomey from the Lagi tribe make the merge, if they keep winning.
Who do you think will definitely be at that merge feast? Watch new episodes of Survivor 48 every Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+ to find out!