After the big, double elimination in Survivor 48 episode 7, "Survivor Smack Talk," there are only 10 players left this season. Each of them has a one in 10 chance at $1 million and the title of Sole Survivor.
Looking at the group of players remaining after Cedrek McFadden was voted out and joined the jury, I thought it would be a good time to share who I think the players most likely to win Survivor 48 are right now. I ranked the 10 remaining players from least likely to win to most likely to win Survivor 48.
Let's get the list started with Chrissy Sarnowsky.
10. Chrissy Sarnowsky
Chrissy might be in big trouble in Survivor 48 episode 8. After sharing some feelings about the direction of the tribe and having to walk back those comments after Tribal Council, Chrissy has to follow up by making a big move to make some real allies. She hasn't really been in jeopardy at any point in the game so far, but she's not great in challenges, and most people don't like being called out at Tribal Council. It's not the best way to make allies and friends in the game.
9. Star Toomey
Star Toomey seems like an awesome person. Star has made some big moves in the game so far, but I don't think she moved herself into a better position to win the game. It makes me fear the other players don't really respect Star's gameplay yet, and like Chrissy, Star is probably in the position to need to make a few moves to start to build a resume.
I think Star's big mistake so far was giving her immunity idol to Eva. Even though Eva solved the puzzle, Star should have used the idol to cement an alliance between them, rather than just relying on Eva's good faith.
8. Joe Hunter
At this point, I'm almost on board with the strong, physical players throwing challenges to give themselves a better chance to advance in Survivor. Joe Hunter and David Kinne absolutely dominated the last challenge in episode 7 to the point that it was kind of jarring for the other players. Obviously, it was fun to watch, but I think everyone sort of realized the same thing: these guys have to go.
I don't know if anyone is talking about it yet, but it's the nature of the modern game to take out the biggest physical threats to make sure they can't just run the table of immunity challenges and win the game. That's the main reason that Joe is probably going to get voted out sooner rather than later.
Of course, Joe has a strong bond with Eva, too. I wonder what a public bond like that does at this point in the game. No one wants to see a duo who could easily win a lot of immunity challenges make it to the Final Six.
7. David Kinne
Like Joe, David Kinne just is too big a threat in physical challenges to win Survivor 48, and that's why he's ranked seventh. And, that's not a knock against David and his social or strategy play. He's just too big a target at this point. Rarely, Survivor players who can run off four or five immunity challenge wins get the opportunity to do that. David winning the last immunity challenge in such dominating fashion is a huge red flag. The same was true with Joe.
It's possible that David could last longer in the game than I think, of course, but I really don't think these players will allow this "Honesty and Integrity Alliance" of the five strongest players in the game to flourish. It seems like David might be in trouble sooner rather than later.
6. Eva Erickson
Eva Erickson has the resume, so far, to be in a position to win Survivor 48 if the game ended today. She's great at challenges. She has key allies, and she has an advantage in the form of an immunity idol. She seems to be building good relationships with other players, too, and expanding her influence in the game.
The only problem is that it's too early in the game to already be such a threat. When everyone is hoping that they aren't the person getting voted out, it's too easy to look around and say, "let's just vote out the players we think have the best chance to win." Like I said, Eva has a top-five case to win Survivor 48, and that's the reason she won't win, unfortunately. I still think she's going to be in the game for at least another few weeks, though, thanks to her immunity idol. I don't think we can say the same for her ally, Joe.
5. Mary Zheng
Mary Zheng reminds me a lot of Kenzie Petty in Survivor 46. Mary started on the Vula tribe, which is the Survivor 48 version of the Yanu tribe from Survivor 46. Mary was targeted early in the game, but she's still here, and it seems like she's been safe from the vote every single time. No one is trying to vote out Mary at this point, which shows that she's probably pretty well-liked among these players. The longer she hangs around, the more likely it is that she might make a winning run right at the end of the game.
Overall, I don't think Mary has a great chance to win the game, but if things break right like they did for Kenzie with a few perfectly timed immunity wins and some great strategic moves at the end of the game, Mary could very well be the Sole Survivor of season 48.
4. Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla Karthigesu is probably my favorite player of Survivor 48. If she wins, I would be so hyped! I don't think there's a better strategic force in the game right now. She's thinking 10 moves ahead, and she's manipulating so many players into making the moves she wants them to make. In many ways, Survivor is a game of making the circumstances work to your advantage in every situation. For instance, we've seen so many players get too aggressive in that three-to-two split after the tribe swap. Kyle and Kamilla could have tried to pull in Joe, Thomas, or Shauhin. Instead, they keep their cool and live to see another day.
Then, we've seen Kamilla planting the seeds that will hopefully blossom into a David vs. Shauhin showdown at some point. She sits back and watches the battle, and then she walks away in a better position in the tribe. It's a brilliant strategy, and it's already working so well.
My one qualm is that people are going to know sooner rather than later just how good she is at Survivor. We see it with all the great strategists in the game at some point, but can Kamilla keep the wool pulled over their eyes? We'll see!
3. Mitch Guerra
Everything in Survivor 48 is setting up for Mitch Guerra to be voted out next, which is why I think Mitch is destined for a huge run to the Final Three in Survivor 48. He's going to be this season's Rachel LaMont.
Mitch started on the Civa tribe and performed well in challenges, but at the merge, he was looking around for allies. While there are more Civa players left in the game, I don't think anyone thinks the Civa players will continue to work together, which is very reminiscent of Rachel's spot in Survivor 47. Now, Mitch just has to find an immunity idol, play it perfectly, and win four of the last five or six immunity challenges, and he has Survivor 48 in the bag.
For real, I think he's capable of that kind of a run. There are a lot of physical threats remaining, but after these few strength and endurance challenges, there is always a puzzle or some type of game required to win immunity down the stretch. Mitch has excelled in that part of the game, so I think he has a good chance to make a deep run, even though it doesn't seem to be going his way so far.
2. Shauhin Davari
I don't know if there's a player in Survivor 48 doing as much social heavy lifting as Shauhin at this point in the game. It seems like he has good relationships with everyone, and that's such a key in the new era of Survivor. I don't think we can point to a Survivor winner in the last few years who didn't play a great social game. Sure, not every winner connected with everyone, but at the very least, they played a good social game to develop key relationships that helped them get to the Final Three.
Shauhin might be lapping everyone at this point in the game. I don't think we've seen anyone say a bad word about him so far in the game. Obviously, his threat level is starting to rise with Kamilla and Kyle starting to target him and other players hinting that it might be time to start picking off the strong players. Eventually, he will be the target, but it's just a matter of what he's done in this first part of the game and if it's enough to keep his allies from turning on him.
Looking at the 10 remaining players, I don't think anyone actually wants to sit next to Shauhin at the Final Three, and that's why he's in a great position to win Survivor 48.
1. Kyle Fraser
Kyle Fraser is the No. 1 pick to win Survivor 48 right now, and it's obvious as to why that's the case. He has the best resume compared to any of the other players. He was almost voted out, but he saved his own life in the game with a hidden immunity idol. He's in a secret yet awesome alliance with Kamilla, and it seems like they are steering the gameplay so far in subtle ways. They aren't in control of the game, so to speak, but they are influencing the game from the shadows. On top of that, he's winning challenges.
The bad thing, and it's the one thing I'm worried about with Kyle, is that it's too early to be in this position. You want to be the No. 1 player in Survivor on Day 23-26. You don't want to be the biggest threat in the game at the merge. There are simply too many votes between now and the end of the game.
Ultimately, I don't think anyone is concerned about Kyle right now, so that's a very good sign for Kyle. How long can it continue? They already tried to vote him off once. Will they do it again?