We're officially down to seven players in Survivor 48. In three episodes, one of these players is going to win Survivor 48: Mary Zheng, Kamilla Karthigesu, Kyle Fraser, Shauhin Davari, Eva Erickson, Mitch Guerra, or Joe Hunter.
As we've been doing this season at various times, I took a stab and ranking the remaining players by who is most likely to win. This ranking is not who would win right now. It's not who has the best resume so far. It's simply who I think is going to win based on how the game has gone so far, how much game is left to be played, and how I anticipate it to shake out after watching so many seasons of Survivor.
Let's get the ranking started with Mary Zheng!
7. Mary Zheng
Unfortunately, Mary Zheng doesn't appear to have much path to victory in Survivor 48. Her allies continue to be targeted. It even looked like Mary was going to be voted out in episode 10, but she survived to see another day.
I don't know if Mary is next to be voted out, but it does seem like that's the next step in this plan by the majority alliance and their allies (which feels funny to say), but it seems like there are going to be six players going toe-to-toe very soon for a chance to win $1 million. And, it doesn't really feel like Mary is going to be a part of that. If she is, she definitely has a path to the end, but it's looking bleak right now. That's why she's No. 7 on the list of players most likely to win Survivor 48.
6. Mitch Guerra
Mitch Guerra had a chance to make a huge move in episode 10. He could have pushed Star, Mary, and Kamilla Karthigesu to draw rocks or tried to pull in Kyle Fraser for an epic blindside. Instead, Mitch opted to stay with the majority alliance's plan while accepting that he was not part of that "Core Four."
Honestly, this move was probably the best move for Mitch right now, and if he can survive another vote, he'll possibly have a chance to make a big move. Basically, if Joe Hunter, Eva Erickson, Shauhin Davari, and Kyle waver at all, Mitch could be right there as the swing vote to make that all happen. Then, if he can get to the Final Three, he might have an outside chance to win Survivor 48. The key there is "outside." As things stand now, Mitch is on the outside looking in with a very specific path to the end. He's running out of options, but there are some still available.
5. Eva Erickson
I could get destroyed for ranking Eva Erickson so low on this ranking, but I just don't think she, Joe, or Kyle have that good of a chance to win right now. That's a pretty bold statement considering Eva has all of the advantages in the game, basically. At this point of the game, Eva is fairly insulated by her alliance, but I can't assume that Kyle, Shauhin, and Kamilla are just planning to roll to the end of the game with Joe and Eva. It's getting to the point where a move is going to be made to break up that duo, and it might be via the blindside.
If Eva makes it to the Final Three, she will absolutely win against everyone except, maybe, Joe, and even then, that would be a toss-up. Unless she perfectly plays her Safety Without Power, immunity idol, and/or wins multiple immunity challenges, Eva is probably going to be targeted and voted out.
4. Joe Hunter
The same can be said for Joe! He's won three individual immunities out of five total challenges. He's going to have a chance to break the record for individual immunities in one season if he's able to stay in the game. That's the key. If Joe makes it to the end, he's going to win against almost anyone. He's dominating the game right now. Every decision recently has come through his alliance, and that's an incredible yet difficult spot to be in. It means he's had a hand in voting out everyone on the jury, so that could be a bad thing for his game.
I have a feeling that the players respect Joe, so they would award him $1 million. And, that's the reason he absolutely will not win. There are too many votes left. Eventually, the players will understand that Joe has to go and do what it takes to vote him out. This is $1 million on the line, you know?
3. Kamilla Karthigesu
I probably have Kamilla Karthigesu a little higher on my list of the players I think are playing a winning game in Survivor right now. So far, Kamilla hasn't really been targeted. Her allies steered the vote away from her, and she's kept on surviving. In the latest episode, she talked about a big move with Kyle and the others, but it ultimately fell flat. Eventually, Kamilla is going to make her move, though, and it's probably going to be sooner rather than later.
There's still a path that gets Kamilla to the end with Mitch and Mary, which probably the ideal scenario for her. I don't know if she wants to go up against any of the other players, but even if she gets to the end with Mitch and Shauhin, Shauhin and Kyle, or even Mitch and Kyle, Kamilla should be able to spin a tale that reveals just how much of a player she was this season.
2. Kyle Fraser
I put Kyle Fraser in the Eva and Joe category of players who just feel like too big of a threat to win Survivor 48. I might have spoken a little too soon because Kyle's chances do seem to have improved by how things shook out in the last episode. Kyle has been basically playing double agent for the entirety of the game after he and Kamilla agreed to work together way back during the Civa days. As we learned in episode 10, Kyle is willing to make a big move with Kamilla, but he's not really interested in stabbing his other allies, particularly Joe and Shauhin, in the back yet.
That puts Kyle in a rough spot because he can't make everyone happy. Eventually, he's going to choose Kamilla or his alliance. If he doesn't choose Kamilla, he's probably going to lose because it feels like the other players won't want to sit next to him at the end. He has a great resume so far, but I expect that will eventually be the thing that gets him taken out of the game.
1. Shauhin Davari
This might be an unpopular pick based on how the game has been playing out, but Shauhin has been one of my picks to win Survivor 48 from the very beginning, and it seems like the game is moving his way as it comes down to the wire.
Look, Shauhin has been part of the majority alliance just like Joe, Eva, and Kyle since the merge, but it seems like Shauhin has made connections with other players outside of that alliance, too. In Star's exit interview, she had nice things to say about the way Shauhin is playing the game. Was that a little foreshadowing? We'll see. We'll see.
But, Shauhin is my pick because I don't think anyone sees him coming. There's been so much talk about Joe and Eva. They are getting a lot of attention, and that's perfect for Shauhin because he's just going to sit back and wait to make a huge move. He still has the numbers on his side right now, and when the time comes to pull in Kamilla, Kyle, and one other player (Mitch or Mary) to roll through the rest of the game, Shauhin is going to do it.
I will be very surprised if the Final Four isn't Kamilla, Kyle, Shauhin, and one other player. That's how I see this season playing out, but we'll just have to wait and see!
There are only three episodes of Survivor 48 left, including the season finale. It's time to buckle up for a wild ride!