How effective is Survivor's shot in the dark, actually?

Survivor’s shot in the dark was introduced back in season 41 as a new era began and new gameplay elements were added to the long-running show.

Upon starting the game, castaways are given a die-like object with their individual names uniquely on each to specify who it belongs to. There are few rules regarding the shot in the dark as they’ve been used for many purposes over the years.

You can give up your vote to play your shot in the dark at Tribal Council for a 1 in 6 chance at safety. If you have an extra vote, you can give up one of your votes to use the shot in the dark and place a vote with your extra vote. You can give your shot in the dark to someone else and they can play it for themselves. Players have even given up their shots in the dark collectively in a rice negotiation with host Jeff Probst.

The one thing we haven’t seen is someone playing their shot in the dark, earning safety, and then trying to give their safety away to someone else like they could with a hidden immunity idol or immunity necklace.

And though there are few memorable moments of the shot in the dark being played, we’ve actually seen one played in every season since its introduction except for one.

The first person to ever play their shot in the dark was Sydney Segal in Survivor 41. She was marked “not safe” and went home in a 5-4-3 vote. But the following season, in Survivor 42, the shot was much more excitedly received and was played by four different players throughout the season. Zach Wurtenberger, Marya Sherron, Swati Goel, and Tori Meehan all used theirs in an attempt to stay safe through a vote, but all of them were marked “not safe” and ultimately went home in the same episode.

The same happened to Sami Layadi in Survivor 43 when he was marked “not safe” and went home in a unanimous 6-0 vote. In fact, it wasn’t until Survivor 44 that we finally saw our first castaway marked safe with their shot in the dark.

Jaime Lynn Ruiz and Matthew Grinstead both played their shots in the dark at the same Tribal Council. Matthew was marked “not safe,” but Jaime was the first to receive the “safe” note—confirming there actually is one in the game. However, neither of them received any votes and Maddy Pomilla was sent home. That same season we returned to the previous pattern when Claire Rafson was marked “not safe” and went home in a 4-0 vote.

And then things got really exciting in Survivor 45 when Kaleb Gebrewold played his shot in the dark and negated all 11 votes in the urn, becoming the first player in Survivor history to correctly play their shot in the dark by earning safety and reversing his elimination. The merged players had a panicked live Tribal Council and turned around to send J. Maya home. Jake O’Kane also played his shot in the dark later that season, was marked “not safe,” but only received 3 of the 8 total votes, keeping him in the game.

In Survivor 46, Moriah Gaynor played hers, but was marked “not safe” and went home in a 10-1 vote, just like most of the others that came before her. But then in Survivor 47 we saw a new use for the shot in the dark. Future winner Rachel LaMont played her shot in the dark not in the hopes of being safe, but to gauge the reaction of her tribe mates to see whether or not she needed to play her hidden immunity idol. She didn’t sense danger—ultimately receiving 0 votes—when she presented the shot in the dark to Jeff, so kept her idol which came in handy down the road and helped her win.

Then Survivor 48 saw the first player in danger Stephanie Berger used her shot in the dark only to be marked “not safe” and be sent home in a 4-1 vote. Her one ally that didn’t vote for her, Mary Zheng, used her shot in the dark in the very next vote and was marked safe, not only negating every vote in the urn, but also bringing to light the controversy of one player not having a vote and not telling anyone. Her safety led to a tie, which led to Cedrek McFadden single-handedly deciding who went home between Sai Hughley and Justin Pioppi—the first time that happened in Survivor history.

But then, Survivor 49 came and everything we’d ever known about the show went out the window. No shots in the dark were played and Rizo Velovic was able to keep a known idol in his pocket for the entire duration of the game.

We returned to the new era gameplay, though, in Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans where we had four individual castaways play their shot in the dark throughout the season. Genevieve Mushaluk, Dee Valladares, Coach Wade, and Rick Devens all attempted safety with their shots in the dark, but were ultimately marked “not safe” and went home.

And now we’ve reached Survivor 51 where just in the premiere episode alone we saw two players—Aaliyah Puglia and Jenna Doore—play their shots in the dark. Neither were marked safe, but Aaliyah ultimately went home in a 6-2 vote. And then no one really knows what happened during the second Tribal Council, but no shots in the dark were played.

It’s still early days, though, and with a cast as strategic and vicious as Survivor 51’s is turning out to be, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see at least two more shots in the dark played throughout the season.

So, if you’ve been keeping count, that’s 21 castaways who have played a shot in the dark on Survivor, only three of which received safety after playing. That’s a 14.2% for the players who effectively drew the “safe” scroll. And a 1 in 6 chance—which is the likelihood of getting safety in a single Tribal Council after playing the shot in the dark—equals 16.6%. So approximately, the shot in the dark is holding its statistical promise, though maybe slightly less effective than it should be on average, still pretty dang close!

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