After only a few days and two Tribal Councils, Survivor 50 pulled off a tribe swap on episode 3. Some players, like Christian Hubicki, Mike White, and Angelina Keeley, fared well, getting thrown together. All three played together in season 37, and Angelina has appeared in Mike's hit show, The White Lotus.
Others weren't as fortunate with the swap. Survivor legend Cirie Fields was split up from her only real ally, Ozzy Lusth. In fact, the only player from her original Cila tribe who joined her on the new Cila is Rick Devens. While Devens isn't an active enemy, he isn't an ally either.
Cila avoided a trip to Tribal Council with a strong performance in the immunity challenge, led by Kamilla Karthigesu. Kamilla did an impressive job directing her blindfolded tribemates in collecting rings and then assembling a puzzle.
This probably saved Cirie for at least one more episode.
How many more tribal councils will Cirie survive on Survivor 50?
After the swap in episode 3, Cirie was as dejected as audiences have ever seen her. She knows she doesn't have any allies, and her only protection and alliance partner is in another tribe now.
Other players are already planning Cirie's ouster from the game. The lone player left in Survivor 50 who has won a season, Dee Valladares, spent some of her confessional time talking about how Cirie can't be allowed in the game.
The longer Cirie can stay in the game, the more time she has to build up some allies. This is something she's been outstanding at doing over the years. And there might be a crack for her to manipulate. Season 49 star Rizo Velovic has already set up some red flags with Charlie Davis.
On the surface, these two seem like they could make good allies, but Charlie is more than concerned about things Rizo mentioned about how he voted in season 49. Of course, no one this season has seen Survivor 49 and has no idea that he's a pretty good strategist.
If Rizo can't earn Charlie's trust, there is a chance that the latter might make a push to vote the former out if Cila goes to Tribal Council in episode 4. That gives Cirie time to build up her relationships in her new tribe.
If she lasts that long, there could be another shuffle once the tribes get down to 18. It would be a very Survivor thing to do. Cirie, if still around, would have to start all over again, building relationships.
For Cirie to have any chance to work her way off the bottom, her tribe has to avoid Tribal Council. It won't be easy. Overall, it is the physically weakest of the new tribes. While challenge beast Jonathan Young is on Cila, the tribe has two fairly physically unimpressive men in Rizo and Charlie, plus Cirie and Kamilla. Both of the women have their strengths, and Kamilla has shown surprising resilience in challenges in time on Survivor, but both could be big hindrances in some challenges.
It would not be surprising if Cila has trouble winning challenges with this alignment. Devens, Dee, and Jonathan may not be enough to carry everyone else.
If somehow Cirie makes it to the final three, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that she would win. It may not even be for her gameplay in Survivor 50, though it will be an incredible accomplishment in itself, but for her body of work over the years.
The trouble for Cirie is that everyone else knows this, and no one is going to want to sit at the final three with her. It's just a matter of time. It may not be in episode 4, but Jeff will snuff Cirie's torch sooner rather than later. If Jeff doesn't, then Cirie will deserve to be the winner.