Joe Hunter has played a strong game so far in Survivor 48. No, literally. He has been a physical beast this season, a consistent threat to win a challenge when it is based on physical ability or endurance. That is not the only element of his game, though, as his social prowess has also helped him a great deal as he has navigated the game sitting in the majority from essentially Day 1 on.
Joe is masterful at finding his way into the majority alliance, and his trustworthiness and loyalty have made many players not only believe in him but also want to work with him. Outside of a major move made by Kyle Fraser and Kamilla Karthigesu during the tribe swap, there has not been a time in which Joe has not been in a majority move, and even at the swap, it took multiple advantages to put him on the outside of the vote.
With both physical and social prowess, Joe has put himself in a good position so far. That said, his strategy has been successful but relatively bland, and he has painted himself a big target. Players have named him repeatedly as a player who could win should he make the end, so that could be his biggest challenge to winning.
There is a path for Joe to win, but can he execute it to lock in the title of Sole Survivor?
Joe has to rely on the loyalty of those around him
It feels weird to say that Joe's success in the final stretch of this game relies on the agency of others, but it appears that will be the case. The fact is, Joe is in the majority, but he does not have a ton of opportunity to make moves on his own. The way he has played the game has locked him into a gameplay style that preaches loyalty and faithful alliances.
This strategy has merit, but it means he will have to be largely rigid the rest of the game. In other words, his alliance of himself, Eva Erickson, Kyle Fraser, and Shauhin Davari is the group he has painted himself into sticking with, and a flip is not just unlikely but likely impossible if he plans to make the argument at the end that he has all season.
As a result of this, Joe has to rely on his other alliance members staying loyal and not seeing him as the biggest threat to the group. Given that Kyle has already spoken on Joe being a threat, it is easier said than done. Joe's path to the end, then, requires help from others. Eva could help with a potential advantage play, but Joe will need to persuade everyone to stick with him. If not, he will have to win out the remainder of the challenges. That is possible for him to do, but nowhere near a guarantee.
The second part of Joe's path requires him to make a move at the end, or possibly at the Final Five. Kyle is by far the biggest threat in the game and has many paths to a win. If Joe has any chance at the title, he needs to cut out Kyle. If he can pull that off, a final three of himself, Eva, and Shauhin at least gives him a chance, if he can convince others that his physical game and social game were better than the other two.
If he could find a way to bring Mitch Guerra to the end over one of Eva or Shauhin, that would be ideal, but chances are high that it will not be possible. Still, he has a solid opportunity in that final three if he can pitch himself appropriately. That is his path to a win, and, unfortunately, his success hinges so much on the decisions of others that are partly out of his control.
Joe has been a kind, honest, and loyal player the entire season. The way he has worked with Eva and supported her through some of the challenges she has faced with her Autism within the game has been touching and inspirational. Joe is a genuinely good person with a big heart, and it would be refreshing in a way to see a player like that make the end and win.
The gameplay may not have shaken the game to its core or fully engaged the audience with surprise after surprise, but from a personal standpoint, Joe is truly a hero. He may not be the front runner, but his performance this season has set him up to have a shot at the win. The toughest part lies ahead, and we will see if the work he has put in establishing loyalty all season will pay off and get him a win.