New era winners ranked by confessional time (and Survivor 50 predictions)

Every season we wonder if the amount of confessionals a player gets in their edit dictates who the winner could be. And with so many awesome fans tracking not only how many confessionals a player gets, but how much screen time comes with those per episode, it’s easy enough to take all that data and see if we can predict our Survivor 50 Final 3 based on how past winners have performed.

Now, to keep this fair and real, this list is based on the average percentage of confessionals and screen time per season. So rather than ranking our winners by how many confessional or how much time they got overall, it’s based on the total amount of confessionals and time in their own season. This way it’s more comparable season-by-season.

“Snap Some Necks and Cash Some Checks” – The remaining five castaways must find the perfect balance in the immunity challenge to make it to the final four. Also, two castaways will have to make fire in order to earn their seat in the final three, with one player being crowned the title of Sole Survivor on the two-hour season finale, followed by the Reunion Show hosted by Jeff Probst, on the CBS Original series SURVIVOR, Wednesday, Dec. 14 (8:00-11:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and

9. Mike Gabler - Survivor 43

With 8.94% of total confessional in his season and 8.96% of the total confessional screen time, Gabler had the least amount of gameplay narrative of all our winners. Considering he claimed his winning tactic to be flying under the radar instead of making moves, this makes a lot of sense.

SURVIVOR 50 — Dee Valladares, pictured here during season 45 will return to compete on the milestone Season 50 of SURVIVOR, premiering Spring 2026 on CBS and Paramount+. Dee is previously the winner of Season 45. Photo: Robert Voets/CBS ©2023 CBS Broadcasting, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

8. Dee Valladares - Survivor 45

Surprisingly, one of the most fan favorite winners—and someone other players have even referred to as the best new era winner—Dee only had 9.43% of total confessionals and 8.96% of total confessional screen time in Survivor 45. Her closest ally, Austin Li Coon, was actually the highest ranked confessional player by both amount and time in her season.

7. Erika Casupanan - Survivor 41

While Erika only had 8.45% of her season’s confessionals, the hourglass advantage surely helped boost her total confessional time up to 10.57%. But again, the Survivor 41 2nd and 3rd place finishers—Deshawn Radden and Xander Hastings, respectively—both outranked her with 56 total confessionals each compared to her 39.

6. Maryanne Oketch - Survivor 42

Our first castaway to hit double digits in both categories, Maryanne had 10.88% of the total confessionals for Survivor 42 with 10.90% of the total confessional time. And again, she was outranked by her runner up, Mike Turner, who had 9 more confessionals than her with close to two more minutes of confessional screen time.

“Episode Several” – A rogue vote at the last tribal council launches a blame game throughout camp. Players must keep their balance to keep their game alive and win immunity. Then, castaways must decide between past loyalties and future strategies in one of the most important tribal councils of the season, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, April 10 (8:00-9:30 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and streaming on Paramount+ (live and on demand for Paramount+ with SHOWTIME subscribers, or on-demand for

5. Kenzie Petty - Survivor 46

One of the most social players of her season, Kenzie was featured in 11.29% of the total confessionals and 13.09% of the total confessional time. While her win against Charlie Davis is still controversial, the two players only had a 12-second difference between their confessional screen time, with Kenzie just beating out Charlie. And the third highest time went to Q Burdette, which isn’t surprising with how much drama he ended up in the middle of.

“A Fever Dream” – Castaways must find where X marks the spot when a boat arrives containing instructions for an advantage for the Final 5 immunity challenge. It’s anyone’s game during this season’s fire making showdown. Then, one castaway will be crowned Sole Survivor and awarded the $1 million prize, on the season 49 finale, followed by the After Show hosted by Jeff Probst, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, December 17 (8:00-11:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and available to stream on

4. Savannah Louie - Survivor 49

Savannah had 13.01% of her season’s total confessionals—the most by far of her fellow castaways—but with only 11.49% of confessional screen time, her runner up Sophi Balerdi saw an extra two and a half minutes of screen time, comparatively. And of course, looking at the overall season, Savannah had the most confessionals in episode 8, “Hot Grim Reaper,” when she iconically won immunity and got to bank her vote.

“The Last Stand” – The stakes could not be higher at a crucial, muddy immunity challenge. Castaways must spark a win or flame out at a fire-making showdown to earn their way to the final three. Then, one castaway will be crowned Sole Survivor and awarded the $1 million prize, on the season 47 finale, followed by the After Show hosted by Jeff Probst, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, Dec. 18 (8:00-10:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and streaming on Paramount+(live and on demand for Paramount+

3. Rachel LaMont - Survivor 47

Almost the opposite of Savannah, Rachel had 11.81% of total confessionals in Survivor 47 with 13.5% of confessional screen time. Considering she went on a journey, got a secret idol in her auction item, tied the all-time women’s immunity record, and pulled off one of the biggest blindsides of the season, it’s not surprising her confessional screen time was the highest of her season.

“Only One of Yous Can Win” – The $1 million dollars is closer than ever as the remaining castaways enter the final stretch of the game. A major come-from-behind win earns one person a trip to the sanctuary and a spot in the final four. Then, a tumultuous fire-making showdown determines the final three. One castaway will be crowned Sole Survivor and awarded the $1 million prize, on the season 48 finale, followed by the After Show, hosted by Jeff Probst, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, May 21 (8:00-11:00

2. Kyle Fraser - Survivor 48

The only new era winner to have the most confessionals (13.54%) and most confessional screen time (14.68%), Kyle was definitely the main character of his season. He even beat out Eva Erickson—easily one of the players who had a huge narrative within the season—by 16 confessionals with nearly 6 more minutes of confessional screen time.

“Under the Wing of a Dragon” – Castaways must negotiate to earn a big pot of rice for the entire tribe. Then, the castaways will need to put their best foot forward to earn immunity at the next tribal council, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, April 26, (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and available to stream live and on demand on Paramount+. Pictured (L-R): Yamil "Yam Yam" Arocho. Photo: Robert Voets/CBS ©2022 CBS Broadcasting, Inc. All Rights Reserved

1. Yam Yam Arocho - Survivor 44

And the most featured winning narrative of the new era so far goes to Yam Yam who had a whopping 15.28% of the total Survivor 44 confessionals with 14.41% of total confessional screen time. The only player who had more screen time than him was the incredibly social Carolyn Wiger, and by less than one minute.

“A Side Dish of Chaos” – One castaway comes clean to the tribe about a previously deceptive move. The crowd favorite SURVIVOR auction returns, with an extra special season 50 spin. Chaos ensues when social media icon MrBeast arrives on the scene, on SURVIVOR 50, Wednesday, April 29. Photo: Robert Voets/CBS ©2025 CBS Broadcasting, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Survivor 50 predictions

Looking at the past patterns, and the interesting consideration that the second or third place players often end up with more screen time than the winner, we’ve calculated who we expect to see in the Final 3 based solely on the performance of other players at this same point in the season.

So after episode 10, the three players whose edits show they could possibly make it to the end are Cirie Fields, Emily Flippen, and then either Jonathan Young or Rizo Velovic taking the final spot.

Historically, both the winner and runner up held the 3rd place rank of confessionals on average at this point in the season while the third place finisher averaged 4th most confessionals. With this in mind, both Ozzy Lusth (56 confessionals) and Rick Devens (44 confessionals) will possibly get eliminated before Final Tribal Council. That leaves Cirie (38 confessionals) to be the first to slide into our Final 3, followed by Emily (34 confessionals) and then the third spot could either belong to Jonathan or Rizo (both at 33 confessionals).

Could we actually imagine that Final 3 coming to fruition? Absolutely. Cirie is dominating this season socially and we can totally see her making the finale as long as she keeps her shields around to move her threat status off her back and onto others. And Emily’s playing strategically smart, but socially a little sloppy. She could easily earn a spot at the finals, but wouldn’t necessarily have the jury votes she needs to win.

And then both Jonathan and Rizo make sense at the last spot. Jonathan believes he’s made every move this season when in fact he’s made none. So he’s an easy person to take to the end and shine humility on the other two finalists for their final speeches. Oppositely, Rizo has stayed loyal to Cirie and if he successfully gets rid of her other no. 1 Ozzy, we could see her taking him to the end.

Will these be our finalists in just a few weeks? The Survivor 50 finale airs Wednesday, May 20 at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and Parmount+, so we’ll find out soon enough.

Add us as a preferred source on Google