Kyle Fraser has emerged as the favorite in Survivor 48 over the last few weeks. Finally, Kyle and Kamilla Karthigesu pulled off the epic blindside they needed to tilt the game in their favor, but there's still more work to be done.
In the season finale on Wednesday, May 21, Kyle finds himself in the best spot of any of the Final Five to win Survivor 48. He has the resume and the relationships. Now, all he has to do is finish the job. It's not going to be easy, and there are two areas where Kyle could slip up with two more Tribal Councils to go.
It's too simplistic to simply say Kyle has to survive two more Tribal Councils to win Survivor 48, but that's basically what needs to happen. He can't win Survivor if he's on the jury. As things stand, Kyle has likely done enough to win this season based on the case he can make to the jury.
So, how could Kyle lose Survivor 48? Let's talk about it!
Joe Hunter wins two more immunity challenges and sets the all-time record
First of all, Kyle, and the other players, have to stop Joe Hunter from winning two more immunity challenges. Based on how Kyle and Kamilla have basically been running circles around Joe since the merge, Joe's only shot is to be such a dominant force in the game and break the all-time Survivor immunity record in the process. I don't think Joe has the respect of the jury right now, so it's going to have to be such an epic performance in the last two challenges to get Joe across the finish line.
Kyle can obviously stop Joe by winning an immunity challenge at the Final Five and voting Joe out. Even if Kyle lets Joe stay and sits with him at the end, he's probably done enough by thwarting Joe in this challenge.
Kyle gets blindsided at the Final Five
Winning immunity also guarantees Kyle's safety, but is it likely that he will win? Kyle has won immunity challenge win on his resume so far, tied with Eva Erickson and Kamilla for second-most of the remaining players.
Objectively, Kyle just pulled off a huge move. Players who pull off huge moves like this are always vulnerable because the threat level rises. Kamilla and Mitch Guerra could easily go to Joe and Eva Erickson and remind them that Kyle just made a huge move, team up, and vote out Kyle if he doesn't win immunity. I don't know how likely that scenario is, though.
Right now, only Kyle and Kamilla know that they lied about Shauhin Davari and his idol. That information will come to light soon, obviously, at Final Tribal Council. Joe and Eva just chose Kyle over Shauhin, basically, so I don't think it would make sense for Joe or Eva to just flip on Kyle. The only way Kyle is getting voted out at the Final Five is if Kamilla betrays her longtime ally. She could go to Joe and Eva and claim that Kyle was lying or something like that. Surely, Joe and Eva would turn on Kyle at that point, which could work better for Kamilla's game. I don't think anything like that is all that realistic, but hey, it's Survivor.
Kyle loses the fire-making challenge
There's only one more vote before Final Tribal Council in Survivor 48. If Kyle survives the Final Five vote, the only way he is losing Survivor 48 is if he loses in the fire-making challenge. It's impossible to know how that's going to shake out, but it's obviously going to be determined by who wins the immunity challenge at the Final Four. They'll get to choose who joins them in the Final Three and who makes fire.
If Joe or Eva win at the Final Four, we have to imagine they would choose each other, which means some combination of Mitch, Kamilla, and Kyle would be making fire. The same goes for Kyle and Kamilla. If they win, they are probably picking the other person to make Final Three. So, we have an opportunity as things stand for some really spicy fire-making challenges with allies competing against each other for a spot in the Final Three.
CBS's episode synopsis calls the fire-making challenge "tumultuous," so something wild is going to happen!
Obviously, there are many variables that could change this outcome, but I really feel like Kyle with the game he's played so far, his way of articulating moves, and his relationships over the course of the game will be the difference in him winning Survivor 48. He's not as big of a favorite as Rachel LaMont heading into the Survivor 47 finale, but something major, major, major will have to happen for Kyle to lose this season.