Kyle Fraser has been one of the main focal points of Survivor 48. With just six players left in the game, Kyle appears to have the most impact on the strategy and direction of the game, based on what viewers have been privy to through the edit. He is well-liked and trusted by both sides of the tribe and has been instrumental in some of the biggest moves of the season.
Kyle has been a threat most of the game, yet due to making himself an asset to the majority of the tribe, he has never really seen himself discussed much in the vote. His scariest moment was at the tribe swap, but his survival was some of his ally member Kamilla Karthigesu's greatest strategic work. Outside of that bump, he has been well protected, and even was protected by his alliance when fellow alliance member David Kinne tried to sow seeds of distrust.
Still, at some point, one would think the players around Kyle would recognize that he is at least some level of threat, right? Does he have a clear and easy path to the end at this point? Is he a clear-cut winner if he makes it that far? Let's break down his possible options and where his best chance of becoming the Sole Survivor of season 48 lies.
Kyle has set himself up in an incredible way, entering the Final Six. He has aligned himself to the point where he has made himself the most critical vote on both sides of the tribe. On one hand, Kyle has Joe Hunter and Eva Erickson relying on him in the power four alliance, along with middleman Shauhin Davari, who appears to be well-connected with Kyle in particular. On the other side, Mitch Guerra and Kamilla both need his vote if they plan to flip the game on its head and come up from the minority.
This means Kyle has any number of combinations in terms of where he can go to make the end. He can stick with the status quo, where he, Joe, Eva, and Shauhin make the final four. The only problem with that could be that he may be eliminated at the Final Four if he cannot win immunity or make fire, as Joe and Eva likely pick each other, and it is possible that Shauhin would bring someone else with him as well.
A second option would be to flip to the minority side with Kamilla and Mitch, possibly trying to pull Shauhin or even a shocking Eva over with him to avoid the 3-3 split. At that point, it would seem based on the edit that all three left would consider Kyle their number one ally, and he would have a clear and obvious path to the Final Three in any permutation.
The only real way for Kyle to get booted before the fire-making challenge would be if Eva and Joe manage to utilize her advantages and an immunity challenge win to force a vote on him, and/or they pair up with Mitch and Kamilla. That said, given Kamilla sees Kyle as her absolute ride or die, the likelihood is far higher that she and Mitch would utilize the info to get Shauhin and Kyle to work with them instead.
Given the plethora of options, what should Kyle choose as his most preferred path? In all honesty, his game has been strong socially, strategically, and physically. He may be the most well-rounded player left in the game, and as such, likely could beat anyone left in the game at the end. Joe may have the best outside chance to win, given his strength socially and physically, and Kamilla may give competition as a strategic and social underdog. Maybe Eva could win depending on how the jury views her overall package.
With this, it would appear his absolute best combination would be pairing with Mitch and Shauhin to make the final three. That would require him to betray all three of his closest allies, though, which could play poorly on a loyalty-driven jury. I believe that his best bet, then, is to try and go with Kamilla and Mitch. He can use the loyalty card to stay fully aligned with Kamilla for the entire game. He also would need to explain to the jury how he controlled the votes and moves.
Kyle has been the focal point of so many votes this season, and he is an instrumental part of the storyline that the editors are trying to tell. Between this and the fact that he has the most likely path to the end, it seems from a viewer standpoint that Kyle is the most likely winner. That said, the game is not over yet, and anything can still happen. If players want to win, they should cut him sooner rather than later. Whether they will or not, though, is anyone's guess.
Watch the Survivor 48 finale on Wednesday, May 21!