We only have two episodes left in Survivor 48! Who is going to be the winner of this season? Well, I ranked all six players remaining in the game from least likely to most likely to win Survivor 48.
On the surface, it seems like the majority alliance has a stranglehold on the game right now. They are picking off players one by one. Eventually, though, someone is going to have to make a move against Joe Hunter and Eva Erickson. Will Kyle Fraser and Shauhin Davari team up with Kamilla Karthigesu and Mitch Guerra to make it happen? I laid out my case why the perfect blindside was actually set up when Mary Zheng was voted out, and I definitely think it's going to happen at the Final Six or Final Five.
As long as Joe or Eva don't win immunity, I'm expecting that Kyle, Shauhin, Kamilla, and Mitch would vote for Joe. Eva will likely be safe by playing her immunity idol. Originally, I still thought Mitch had his Block a Vote advantage to allow for a split vote, but he doesn't.
We'll see if it actually shakes out that way! In the meantime, though, let's take a look at the players most likely to win Survivor 48.
6. Joe Hunter
Look, I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If Joe makes the Final Three, I have a feeling he will win Survivor 48. He might put his foot in his mouth during Final Tribal Council and come off too preachy, which is what happened during Survivor 48 episode 11 when he was talking to Mary Zheng.
I just don't think Joe is going to make it to the end. Given the edit this season, it's too simple for Joe to just end up at the end of the game, given what's happened. He might take control in these last two episodes, win three straight immunities, and win the season, but it's much more likely that he does not even get that close to the end. I have 47 seasons of Survivor history backing me up there.
Joe seems like a great dude, but is he the winner of Survivor 48? Again, I don't think he is, but I do think that's what the story so far is pointing viewers to believe. There's still a perfect blindside on the table for Kyle, Kamilla, Shauhin, and Mitch, and I think they'll take it in episode 12.
5. Mitch Guerra
It looked like there might be an opportunity to make a big move for Mitch in each of the last two episodes, but he's continued to vote with the majority alliance. Now, it's really time to make a move if Mitch has any hope of winning.
At this point, there's a good chance that Mitch will have a chance to make it to Final Tribal Council, but so far, Mitch doesn't have many moves to point to, many immunity challenges, or big moments that he can claim. Mitch could still be used for a big blindside on the majority alliance.
If that happens, Mitch will at least have that on his resume, but then, he has to find a way to beat the rest of these players at the end of the game. I just don't think that happens.
4. Eva Erickson
Eva Erickson is in a great spot to make the Final Four, but based on how I see this season ending, it's going to be an uphill battle for Eva over the last few episodes. She's in the majority alliance right now, but her relationship with Joe Hunter is the biggest threat in the game. If the other players allow this alliance to continue, they don't deserve $1 million.
Eva does have a hidden immunity idol, but unless she wins immunity, I don't think she is going to make the Final Four. I'm guessing that Eva will be voted out at the Final Five after Joe Hunter is voted out at the Final Six. If that doesn't happen, Eva is going to be moving way up in these rankings!
Like Joe, if Eva makes it to the end with two other players, she'll probably win just based on how she played the game, how brave and strong she was, and how she used her advantages to basically control the game with her alliance. Unfortunately, I just don't see her getting to that point.
3. Shauhin Davari
Originally, I thought Shauhin Davari was in a great spot to win Survivor 48, but he's struggled to make any major moves. Honestly, I think he's the key to holding the majority alliance together. Joe and Eva would have been targeted by now if Shauhin wasn't in the mix, making connections, and shaping some of these votes, even though he's not getting credit for putting the moves together.
We just heard Rachel LaMont share how difficult it is to articulate that strategy at Final Tribal Council. That's one of the things that made me think Shauhin just might not have the resume to win Survivor 48, even if he makes a few moves down the stretch. Now, if Shauhin wins a few immunity challenges and dictates the game over the final few days, well, his chances get a lot better. Based on how I think it will go, Shauhin will have a good chance of making Final Three, but he'll have a much more challenging time making his case for $1 million when he could be sitting next to Kyle Fraser, Kamilla Karthigesu, and potentially Joe Hunter who have probably outplayed him to this point in the game.
2. Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla Karthigesu had a great week in episode 11. She won her first individual immunity challenge, and she almost orchestrated a blindside on Joe. Kamilla pulled back on the move, likely because of how Mary was acting at camp, but she's still in a good spot to pull off an epic move and blindside with a little bit of help in episode 12.
Overall, Kamilla is benefiting from Kyle's gameplay, and I don't really see a scenario where she gets to the end instead of Kyle unless she chooses to blindside her own ally. She's played an incredible game so far. She helped orchestrate Kyle's immunity idol play after the tribe swap. They owe each other a lot in the game, but Kamilla has the opportunity to make a few moves, win another challenge or two, and head into Final Tribal as the front runner. Is it likely? I don't know about that, but I do think she's right where she needs to be heading into these last few episodes. She just needs to push Kyle to flip on his allies!
1. Kyle Fraser
Kyle Fraser seems like he's going to be the winner of Survivor 48. It feels like he's getting the winner's edit. We're getting more insight into his feelings about the game, his decisions, and struggles. I don't know we're really getting that from any of the other players in such an impactful way yet.
Over the last few weeks, Kyle has gone back and forth on his decision to betray his allies in the game, specifically Joe and Eva. It's just a game, though, at the end of the day, and I do feel that Kyle will eventually make the moves to win the game in the last two episodes.
Overall, Kyle has a great resume right now, too. He's the only player left in the game who has saved himself from elimination. He found and played a hidden immunity idol. He has great relationships with the majority alliance, and he seems like a good person in real life and in the game. He has an immunity win. Obviously, he has more work to do to win the game, but he definitely seems to have the upper hand with two episodes remaining.
So, that's where I think things stand heading into the penultimate episode of Survivor 48!