After Survivor 48 episode 11, “Coconut Etiquette,” everyone is left wondering why Kyle Fraser, Kamilla Karthigesu, Shauhin Davari, and Mitch Guerra didn’t vote out Joe Hunter.
Even after Joe lost the immunity challenge for the first time in what feels like forever, Mary Zheng was voted out of Survivor 48. The blindside was right there, but these players, again, passed on the chance to break up Eva Erickson and Joe.
At first glance, it seems like a huge missed opportunity for one of these players to make a big move, sit down in the driver’s seat, and win Survivor 48. While predictable, this move was actually the perfect setup for an epic blindside of Joe and Eva at the Final Six (or even the Final Five). After watching episode 11, that's the move that I think is going to propel Kyle Fraser or Kamilla Karthigesu to winning Survivor 48.
How voting out Mary sets up a blindside on Joe Hunter
Looking at the numbers, it makes sense to wonder why the five players not named Joe and Eva didn’t come together to make a move against the duo. Well, for me, it comes down to Mary Zheng. As we saw, Mary was wildly unpredictable, or at least seemed to be. Imagine if Mary, who has been on the outside looking in for a few votes in a row, learned that the move to take out Joe or Eva was happening. Mary could take that information to Joe and Eva, advise them to play Eva’s advantages, and then make a pact to make it to the Final Three after they took their pick to vote out Kyle, Kamilla, Mitch, or Shauhin. Joe or Eva would leave Tribal Council with the Safety Without Power advantage, and they could basically pick off whomever they wanted.
Sure, Mitch could play his Block a Vote, and then, he, Shauhin, Kyle, and Kamilla could split 3-1 or 2-2. Mary would probably go home in that scenario, but it’s messy. No one wants a messy move, not when it’s potentially the biggest move of the game.
So, I think the inability to trust Mary was probably a factor in the decision.
The other factor is obviously Eva’s advantages. With a hidden immunity idol and Safety Without Power, any potential sign of trouble, she could have played them and lived to see the Final Six anyway. Now, the Safety Without Power advantage goes away, I believe. Unless Eva or Joe wins immunity, Eva can only protect herself or Joe. One of them will be vulnerable.
With an alliance of four against two players with one idol, a split vote is in play, but it's unlikely. Basically, two votes would go to Joe, and two votes would go to Eva. Or, they could just assume that Eva isn't going to play her idol for Joe and put three or four votes on him. So, the player who doesn’t play Eva’s idol (likely Eva) would be voted out. That player would be Joe in this scenario.
There are a lot of steps in that plan, and there’s an obvious flaw, of course. If Joe or Eva wins immunity and learns of that plan, Eva could easily play the idol for herself or Joe, whoever doesn’t have immunity, and be safe for the Final Five.
It also opens up Kyle, Shauhin, Mitch, or Kamilla to an opportunity to double-cross this new alliance, if it actually exists, and tank the plan in an effort to go to the Final Three with Joe and Eva. I don’t think any of them actually want to do that, though.
If Shauhin, Kyle, Mitch, and Kamilla are working together, the game makes so much more sense in the last few weeks. They obviously didn’t really have a shot at Joe and Eva until now, because of the advantages. If they chose to make this move and missed, well, they would have tanked their games. Now, one advantage is gone, so it makes so much more sense to just be patient, don’t panic, and make the move as soon as it’s available.
Even if Joe or Eva wins immunity at the Final Six, the move is still available at Final Five with three players vs. Joe and Eva.
Looking back at how the last few votes have played out, it makes sense to keep voting out players who could be a roadblock if the plan has always been to vote out Joe and Eva at the Final Six or Final Five after Eva’s advantage expired. Driving that wedge between Joe, Eva, and David Kinne is probably the move that made this all possible. I don’t know why they’d leave these conversations, assuming they did take place, out of the episodes, though, unless they are banking on what looks like a huge move coming out of left field or something that in the final two episodes of the season.
That’s why I’m buying the theory that Kelley Wentworth mentioned about not knowing all of the information specifically involving Mitch. Could there be a secret alliance between Mitch, Kyle, Shauhin, and Kamilla longer than we’ve thought? It’s definitely possible.
Maybe I’m the weird one speculating about a move that will never actually happen after midnight ET. I mean, that’s definitely true, but I do think there’s something here between Mitch, Shauhin, Kamilla, and Kyle in the works. It just feels like that’s where we are headed. They might be the Final Four!
If this blindside happens like I think it will, the whole post-merge game starts to make sense.
We’ll find out in the penultimate episode of Survivor 48 on Wednesday, May 14.