It is absolutely unfathomable that three straight tribal councils could send home a player with an idol safely tucked away in the pockets, but that is exactly what has happened on Survivor 46. It's further proof that, despite the level of entertainment, this season will not go down as one of the better strategic campaigns.
Some could argue that the fact three straight people were voted out without using their idols is examples of great strategy that led to the blindsides. Alas, all three had plenty of signs they should play their idols, yet they chose to keep them for souvenirs.
Venus, who had moved up in the power rankings last week, further enhanced her chances to make the final five by finding an idol, and for a while, keeping it secret. Then, she came within centimeters of winning immunity. Of course, she blew everything by letting Charlie know in a roundabout way she had an idol. If she kept her mouth shut, she could have just played her idol, got Q out of the game, and earned points with the jury. Instead, she joins their ranks.
Who's most likely to win Survivor 46 heading into episode 12?
6. Ben
Last week - 5th
Ben just floats along like a bit of dust in the wind. He seems content to let someone drag him along to the final three where he'll just be happy to have made it that far.
Really, that's about all he's done in the game so far. His only true chance of winning disappeared then Venus exited because she was one of only two people (Liz) whom he had any chance of beating at the final tribal council.
5. Liz
Last week - 6th
Liz will be long-remembered for her episode 10 meltdown and her constant whining about people she's never had a strong relationship with not choosing her for food rewards. This time, it was Maria who ignored her begging and incurred Liz's wrath. Boohoo!
Unlike Ben, Liz is at least making some attempts to play the game, however ineffective. Despite her loathing of Q, she continues to allow others to talk her into voting out others. In truth, it is surprising her tribemates have tolerated her this long. She is only still here because she is a malleable vote and she is no threat whatsoever to win.
The goofy part is, with how this season has played out, who knows what this jury will do. Maybe Liz has gained more sympathy from other players than the edit has shown. Shrug, who knows?
4. Kenzie
Last week - 3rd
Kenzie just hasn't been able to make a big move. Now, she is reduced to trying to remind the jury that she's been on the right side of the vote (meaning she had a hand in voting almost everyone out), and letting her friend Tiffany know she wasn't involved in Tiff's ouster. Let's just forget the part where Kenzie wanted Tiffany out during the previous vote.
Kenzie could still win this game if she can make it to the final tribal sitting next to Ben and Liz. If she pulls that off, she should win unanimously. Her lack of successful gameplay pushes her back down a very thin power ranking board.
3. Q
Last week - 7th
Why the big jump this week for Q? It's pretty simple really. He has somehow survived to this point in the game while also being a massive target. That should be a huge selling point if he makes into the final three.
The jury might not respect his wildcard style of play, but they will have to respect the fact that he's sitting there. Let's face it. Considering who is left, he is way more deserving of winning than the three players ranked below him.
He very well might be persuasive enough at final tribal to convince enough jurors that his chaos was all according to plan. In confessionals, he's talked about chaos, so who knows? Q might just be a genius agent of chaos. Is that genius enough to win?
2. Maria
Last week - 1st
It's pretty much been Maria and Charlie running things since the merge. They've worked together the whole way, but both probably know they can't both go to the end. One has to take out the other.
An image from the previews for episode 12 show Maria lying on the beach with tears running down her cheek. That could mean anything, but it could mean she finds out that Charlie might be plotting against her. It makes sense; that betrayal would certainly cause her distress.
Maria seems to have been focused on each vote in front of them without looking too far down the road other than who was best for her game. She and Charlie have been spot on, knocking out the more strategic targets. By being in charge, Maria and Charlie have also controlled who is still in the game.
While Maria and Charlie have been partners throughout the game, Maria seems to have been naive about them actually going to the final three together. Charlie has not.
1. Charlie
Last week - 2nd
Charlie has been always looking ahead. He's understood that he and Maria can't go to the end together. They've shared the same game, and if it were between them, Maria would probably have more of the jury's votes.
He has done a great job deflecting attention from himself. He's been content allowing others to take credit on moves made by him and Maria. He's even encouraged Maria to own their moves as her own. BUT, if he's at the final three without Maria, he can show how he was instrumental in all of the moves they pulled off together.
He's 100 percent right, though. He has played a huge, subtle, shadowy game that others may not have appreciated while they were on the beach with him. There is a chance, however, that this could cost him. Jurors may not believe he was the driving force behind many of his and Maria's moves. They may be convinced Maria was the leader and she just brought him along.
If Charlie takes out Maria or if she can pull votes together to turn the tables on him, they will get credit for taking out their closest ally. In modern Survivor, a lot of juice goes along with that.
It won't be surprising if this is the episode where either Maria or Charlie get voted out. It's a toss-up at this point.
Survivor 46 episode 12 airs on Wednesday, May 15, on CBS and Paramount+ at 8 p.m. ET.