We’re down to seven contestants on Survivor 48, which has been a unique season in many ways. For the first time ever, the most physical players in the game bonded and formed an alliance. Outside of a brief hiccup during episode nine when David Kinne spread too much chaos within this group, these allies have stayed strong and still have strength in numbers, 4-3.
The underdogs in this game—Star Toomey, Mary Zheng, Mitch Guerra, and Kamilla Karhigesu—had a prime chance to force a tie at tribal council and see if the Meat Shield alliance was willing to go to rocks to determine who would be sent to the jury. That plan never materialized.
In the end, Star was voted out and sent to the jury. Star didn’t get much of an edit until the last two episodes. The audience doesn’t know if she wasn’t as active or engaging earlier in the game and just came out of her shell late, but she was hilarious and entertaining over the last two installments. It was like fans didn’t get a chance to know her better.
7. Mitch Guerra
Mitch is one of the most likable players this season, but he’s frustrating fans with his lack of gameplay. Multiple times during his confessions, he’s admitted he’s not been making his own moves, so he is quite self-aware. Yet, he does nothing about it other than lament the fact.
Episode 10 provided an opportunity to cause some chaos and possibly break up the power alliance. A plan was hatched where Mitch, Star, Mary, and Kamilla could force a 4-4 tie at tribal council and force the players to draw rocks to see who would go to the jury.
Sure, it was a last-ditch effort, and it would have given the underdogs at least a chance at breaking up the Meat Shield alliance, but Mitch couldn’t pull the trigger. He wouldn’t go along, and Star was voted out. It will be even more difficult to crack the close foursome apart.
6. Mary Zheng
Mary hitched her wagon to David and helped him stir up tension within their alliance, which has cost both of them. It may not affect Mary’s finish much, but it gives her little chance of breaking up the core allies.
She tried, but Mitch’s wishy-washy play doomed the plan to force a vote to go to rocks. She may last another episode because she isn’t considered the same threat as Mitch, but she doesn’t have many more days left on the beach.
5. Kamilla Karthigesu
For the first time in a while, Kamilla is questioning the long-term benefit of her secret partnership with Kyle Fraser. Undoubtedly, it has kept her in the game longer because David wanted her out several episodes ago, and Kyle protected her.
There are only seven remaining players, and she is one of the seemingly straightforward votes left. How long will Kyle be able to shield her? Kyle will have to choose between her and his alliance, and it may not go in her favor. On the other hand…
4. Kyle Fraser
…Kyle can still move against his alliance, using Kamilla, Mary, and Mitch. If he were to go for it in episode 11, he might lock down a win for himself.
There is one aspect of this season that is refreshing, and a twist created by the players themselves. The Meat Shield members WANT to play an honest, upfront game. Players have evolved their game to the extent that they seem to want to play with integrity and prove it can be done.
Kyle is now in the middle. He WANTS to be upfront and likes his allies, but he has not been upfront with them about his relationship with Kamilla. He has to suspect he may not stand a chance if he goes to the final three with either Joe or Eva. Audiences saw Kyle bemoaning the corner he’s painted himself into. Now, we’ll see which side he chooses. This may be his last chance to make the big move he’s wanted to make.
3. Shauhin Davari
During early confessions, Shauhin projected himself as a smart strategic player who was someone to watch. He seemed like a prime candidate to pull off some big moves. Disappointedly, he has played a safe game.
On one hand, it is refreshing to see players succeed with a game plan based on loyalty and honesty. Joe and Eva have forced their will of goodness onto the game, specifically on their closest allies. The only diversion from this was the vote that ousted David. Granted, though right about Kyle and Kamilla, David created tension by pressing so hard and earned his jury spot.
It feels like the audience has been waiting all season for Shauhin to make a move, but he hasn’t. Even the David vote was ultimately decided by Eva, who merely asked Shauhin and Kyle if they’d be on board to vote out their ally.
Time is running out for Shauhin, or anyone else, to make a big move. If Shauhin is going to do something, now is the time.
2. Joe Hunter
Joe will still be a target if he doesn’t win immunity. He will have the best overall resume, and his loyalty, first to Eva, then to his alliance, has solidified his legacy so far.
Still, if Joe doesn’t win immunity, Kyle has the numbers with Kamilla and the underdogs to take out Joe in episode 11. It will have to be a well-protected blindside because Eva has two advantages, and if she caught wind about a Joe vote, she could save him.
Early in the game, Joe decided to play with and protect Eva, and he has, though she is a strong player in her own right. If Joe makes it to the final three, he will be hard to beat, though David is sure to call him out for not being loyal to David. Eva may be the only one who can beat him if he makes the final tribal council.
1. Eva Erickson
Eva has two advantages, and it would be shocking to see her go in episode 11. This is the last time she can use the Safety without Power advantage, but if she uses it or plays it for someone else, that player will lose their vote when they leave Tribal Council.
The best case scenario for Eva is if her alliance of four holds, and she has a souvenir. She still has the immunity idol she got from Star pre-merge. That will protect through the final five, if someone doesn’t get brave and take her out early.
Eva has been insulated for quite a while this season, but she has performed well in most challenges and has been a force in her alliance's decision-making. It’s doubtful anyone would be upset if Eva won this game.
Survivor 48 has a chance to be a legacy season. Can four strong players stick to their word to play together until the end? Can someone win while playing a game as trustworthy and loyal as we’ve ever seen? These last few episodes are going to be very interesting indeed.