Survivor 48 continues to be intriguing. In past seasons, it has been frustrating to watch players play it safe and back off big moves, even when they know they need to.
This season has had some of that, as we’ve watched Mitch Guerra let multiple opportunities pass by without doing anything, even though he’s admitted he’s been playing safe during his confessions.
On the other hand, it has been cool to watch Kyle Fraser and, to some extent, Shauhin Davari stick to their alliances. This doesn’t happen much in Survivor, and it’s never happened when the strongest players bond. The audience has to wonder if this strong alliance of four, including Joe Hunter and Eva Erickson, can survive to the final four.
Mary Zheng was always going to be the easy vote in episode 11, but she didn’t go calmly into the night. She tried to convince Kamilla Karthigesu and Mitch to make one last try to oust Joe. She tried to pull Kyle, then Shauhin, into her plan. She even sowed paranoia with Joe by telling him directly that she would vote for him. In the end, the alliance stuck together, and Kamilla and Mitch made it a unanimous vote to send Mary to the jury.
6. Mitch Guerra
Poor Mitch. He’s wanted to make a big move but lacked the courage to follow through. He’s had plenty of opportunities, especially in episode 10, but could never pull anything off.
He’s likable, with no enemies on the jury. It is hard to imagine, however, that he’d be able to convince anyone to hand him the $1 million over anyone left in the game. Everyone has a touching story, and everyone has played a better game. His game has been disappointing, but he has made it to the Final Six. He probably won't advance further unless the Meat Shield alliance finally turns on itself.
5. Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla Karthigesu all but conceded the fact that Kyle would make the Final Three without her during the last episode. She mentioned a couple of times that all that mattered was that one of them needed to make the finals. It also appeared as if she was letting Kyle off the hook if he had to vote against her at some point.
As great as the Meat Shield alliance has been, the secret partnership between Kyle and Kamilla has been just as intriguing. It has lasted a long time. Never has a secret collaboration lasted as long or been as successful as this one. Both deserve credit for being true to each other.
If Kyle finally decides he has no chance against Joe or Eva, and he and Kamilla can pull off a big move, then Kamilla could make it to the Final Tribal Council. She’ll be able to make a case for the prize. She’s played a low-key game, aligned with Kyle, and she won the immunity challenge in the last episode. She hasn’t ticked off any of the jury, and those ousted players might hold a grudge against the power allies. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.
4. Shauhin Davari
As the game has advanced, Shauhin has become increasingly entrenched within the power alliance. He still looks solid to make the Final Four, but he was turned a little sour when Joe became so paranoid after Mary announced she would vote for Joe.
Of the four players in the Meat Shield alliance, he has the weakest case to win, though the team made most of the decisions. He hasn’t won a challenge, but he’s allowed Joe to be the face of the alliance, which was smart. Whether the jury will see that as the case remains to be seen.
Shauhin still has time to make a game-changing move to pad his resume, but it doesn’t look like he will.
3. Joe Hunter
The closer the game gets to the end, the bigger target Joe becomes, even within his alliance. Eva probably won’t turn on him, but there is a chance everyone else might.
The pressure of the game is getting to Joe. He was definitely paranoid in episode 11. He had reason to do so, and he was right that it was easy for Kyle and Shauhin to dismiss Mary, but Joe knew it was still Survivor. People turn on each other all the time.
The theme of this season has been that this alliance refuses to turn on each other, except when David Kinne was voted out. The remaining four have remained steadfast. The question remains: How long will that last?
2. Kyle Fraser
Fans need to pay attention. Over the last two episodes, Kyle has received the bulk of the attention and confessionals. Eva appeared to be the focus right before and right after the merge, but the edit has focused on Kyle of late.
It is because he is stuck between two alliances that he cares about. He wants to be loyal to Joe, Eva, and Shauhin and doesn’t want to vote out Kamilla. He is honestly torn by his dilemma. His story arc throughout this game has been excellent, and if he plays things just right, he could win this game. His edit seems to be pointing that direction.
If anyone takes out Joe, it will be Kyle, with the help of Kamilla. How he does it, or if he does, will be a big storyline as the season winds down.
1. Eva Erickson
Going into the Final Six, Eva still has her immunity idol, but her Safety Without Power advantage expired after the Final Seven tribal ended with Mary leaving. Now, both she and Joe are vulnerable going into the Final Six.
Eva has some protection, but a well-executed blindside by Kyle and/or Shauhin could nullify her idol, which can last be used at the Final Five tribal. If Joe wins immunity during episode 12, she could be the target.
The idol is still the most significant item of power left in the game, and it does give her some protection if her strong alliance holds for one more vote. If she makes it to the final four, she is a threat to win immunity to guarantee her place in the final three.
How this game plays out is almost out of her hands. She completely trusts the members of her alliance to do as they say, and if they do, she has a great chance to win. If they don’t, all bets are off.