The Survivor 49 winner will be crowned on Wednesday, Dec. 17. Although it will be a little later than expected thanks to a speech from President Trump, we will find out which of the five players remaining will win the season.
Sage Ahrens-Nichols, Rizo Velovic, Sophi Balerdi, Kristina Mills, or Savannah Louie will be the Survivor 49 winner. There are already some rumors about who actually wins this season floating around, but I tried to keep those out of my mind while making my pick for who is most likely to win Survivor 49.
I also ranked all five players from least likely to win to most likely to win heading into the final episode of the season. And, honestly, episode 12 was a huge turning point in the game. How it played out definitely impacted how I thought about the season and who is going to win, especially the fallout of Steven Ramm getting voted out and what he said in his exit interviews.
5. Kristina Mills
Kristina has played an interesting game in Survivor 49. She's had chance to really make some big moves, and she's been in some solid alliances that gave her a chance to really take control of the game. Overall, Kristina fell a little bit short in that regard.
After the merge, Kristina did not benefit from some decisions that were out of her control with how the tribe was split, and that forced her to make some mistakes. She played an immunity idol for Steven when he wasn't at risk, which proved to be a mistake in front of the jury. Then, she turned around and stabbed Steven in the back two votes later. It's that choice that defines Kristina's game. I don't see how she overcomes these mistakes to win.
4. Sophi Balerdi
Sophi deserves a lot of credit for the way she's played the game. She's the final Kele player left in the game with three Uli players and a Hina player. She has been part of some many votes, but there's almost no way Sophi makes the comeback necessary to win Survivor 49, and it's because there are three players left with better resumes than her.
Most importantly, Sophi had a chance to shake this game up, and she totally blew it. She could have betrayed Rizo, taken his idol, and voted out Rizo. She still would have had to beat Savannah or Steven or Sage down the stretch, but that's a huge move to take out a threat and gain an immunity idol that would have seen her to the Final 4.
Likewise, she had a chance to show the jury she was in control, and she didn't do it. While she survived, she proved that she wasn't in control, and that's basically as good as getting voted out at this point in the game.
3. Sage Ahrens-Nichols
Sage has played one of the most interesting games of Survivor we've seen in a really long time. She's orchestrated blindsides, played hard, and made big moves, but she's also made some super questionable decisions along the way that don't really make much sense.
I do defend Sage a little bit for voting out Steven, though, because she's playing to win the game. She needed Steven, Rizo, and Savannah to get voted out in three straight eliminations to open up the path for her to win. If she sits at the end with Sophi and Kristina, she wins. So, for her, it's like Savannah can't get voted out, Rizo is playing the idol, and voting out Sophi doesn't actually help my game. Steven should have realized that. He didn't, and now, he's on the jury.
Sage deserves credit for that move, but now, she has the challenge of making sure Savannah doesn't win immunity and someone beats Rizo at fire to win Survivor 49. It's possible, but I don't think it's very likely.
2. Rizo Velovic
For me, the season was going to come down to Rizo, Steven, and Savannah. Steven had a chance to win the game because he had so many players on the jury on his side, and he played a really solid game down the stretch. When he was betrayed, I thought Rizo, who bamboozled everyone by not playing his idol the whole game, was going to move into the top spot to win Survivor 49.
Then, I thought about it a little more. While I give Rizo a lot of credit for not playing his idol for so long and really working votes to get the pressure off him and Savannah, I don't think the other players really though he was a threat to win. In fact, I think the other players like Alex Moore, Sophie Segreti, and Steven were bigger threats, and that's why others were on board to target them.
I saw an exit interview with Steven that basically revealed that the jury and the other players didn't really care about Rizo's idol. In fact, Steven basically implied that Rizo's antics were rubbing people the wrong way. What made for great drama on TV every week was not resonating with the other players, especially the jury. That makes me think one player basically has this season in the bag, and that player is...
1. Savannah Louie
Savannah is my pick to win Survivor 49, and it's simply because of a few things. First of all, she's been the biggest challenge threat in the show. She's won more individual immunities than any other player this season, and she has a very good chance to tie the Survivor record for immunity wins in one season.
On top of that, she's played a great game and stopped others from voting her out time after time. There are some aspects of her game that might not be great obviously. Her social and strategic game has faltered at times, but she's competing to win, and she's in a great spot to do just that.
Ultimately, I thought Rizo had the better resume, but I think Savannah has the respect of the players when you look at just how impactful her immunity wins have been. I don't think she's well-liked among the rest of the players based on their reactions to some of her moves. At the end of the day, this jury seems like they're going vote for the player they respect, and I think Savannah has that more so than Rizo or the rest of these players.
I also think we've seen Savannah get the winner's edit this season. We've seen all the highs and lows she's been through personally in the game, and that really matters. Not to the jury, of course, but this is a narrative. We saw Savannah overconfident in the beginning of the game, humbled in the first few votes after the merge, and then really have to dig her heels in, literally, during these challenges to save her life in the game time after time.
So, that's who I think is going to win Survivor 49! Make sure you tune in on Wednesday, Dec. 17, to see just how this season shakes out.