It's finally here, everyone! The Survivor 49 finale airs tonight, which means we'll finally learn who the Sole Survivor of season 49 is as well as who the two players returning for Survivor 50 will be.
Our Final Five—Sage Ahrens-Nichols, Sophi Balerdi, Savannah Louie, Kristina Mills, and Rizo Velovic—only have a few more obstacles in their way before a winner is crowned. With 2 more immunity challenges, 1 more vote, the fire-making challenge, and Final Tribal Council the only things standing in between one of these players a $1 million, I have a pretty good idea of who will be walking away with that check.
But first, let's talk about what we know will definitely happen during tonight's episode.
What time is the Survivor 49 finale on tonight?
The Survivor 49 finale episode is titled "A Fever Dream." It airs at 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, Dec 17, on CBS and Paramount+. As always, West Coast viewers must wait until 8 p.m. PST on Wednesday, Dec. 17, to tune in for the episode.
Unlike the standard 90-minute episodes, tonight's finale is a 3-hour event including the after show with the finalists and jury lead by host Jeff Probst.
But be prepared for the episode to end a little later than expected as The White House announced a live, primetime address from the president without a planned runtime, set to begin at 9 p.m. EST on Wednesday, Dec 17—about an hour into the East Coast broadcast of the finale. CBS has confirmed that Survivor will resume right where it left off as soon as the national address is complete, so you won't miss a moment of the action.
What to expect in the Survivor 49 finale
Production has done a pretty good job of keeping this season's finale under lock-and-key, especially after fans were disappointed last season when a major spoiler was revealed in the finale trailer. But the only thing we know for sure is that Rizo still has an active idol in his pocket that will last through one more Tribal Council.
In one finale sneak peek, he seems pretty set that he will be in that Final Four thanks to his idol, which leads us to believe the most probable scenario is that we will finally see Rizo play a real immunity idol after he's attended eight Tribal Councils with everyone knowing it's right there in his pocket.
But after all the theatrics he's performed week-after-week, there's also the possibility of him playing it on his closest ally Savannah—if she doesn't win individual immunity—or their other Final Three ally Sophi, if he senses some sort of tomfoolery going down.
Because at this point, Savannah is the only player left in the game who has won any individual immunity challenges, and the odds of someone else taking the necklace from her are very low. Not only will two more immunity wins get her to Final Tribal Council, but they will also get her into the Survivor history books.
And another sneak peek at tonight's episode shows the first minute of the Final Five challenge, which has our castaways getting down and dirty as they fight for the first immunity necklace of the night. It's the kind of challenge we predicted we might see based on past seasons, only a little messier.
We also have the synopsis for the episode, thanks to CBS, but like I said, they're keeping everything pretty general about what to expect:
"Castaways must find where X marks the spot when a boat arrives containing instructions for an advantage for the final five immunity challenge. It’s anyone’s game during this season’s fire-making showdown. Then, one castaway will be crowned Sole Survivor and awarded the $1 million prize, on the season 49 finale, followed by the After Show hosted by Jeff Probst, on SURVIVOR..."
Who will take home the $1 million prize in the Survivor 49 finale?
After everything that's happened this season, fans would be pretty shocked if it was anyone but Savannah or Rizo scoring the title of Sole Survivor. But looking strictly at gameplay, especially through the eyes of the jury, those two were the original targets of every single post-merge vote yet managed to strategically deviate everyone's plans to get their biggest adversaries out of this game, one-by-one.
Early on Rizo came off as a quirky, fun guy in all his social plays, but we knew from day 1 that he was a master strategist as soon as he copied off Alex Moore's puzzle on the supply journey, managing to outmaneuver him to win a pot and machete for the Uli tribe. From there on out, he used that same circular thinking in all his conversations, influencing almost every single vote after the Nate Moore blindside without ever having to play his idol.
And Savannah was right there with him, pulling in anyone who felt like they were on the bottom to revitalize their power in the game by making them a number for her, yet making them think they were pulling the strings, until they saw through the tactic and she blindsided them before they could blindside her. She also exhibited incredible physical feats by winning three individual immunity challenges when she needed them most and will have a chance to both tie and beat a record tonight.
Sophi was a key member of their alliance, too. She was a strong middle man, keeping good social bonds with everyone at camp and leading them to believe she was always ready to make a move on Savannah and Rizo—when the time was right. This kept her in the loop of everybody's plans, which allowed her to be the spy of the season, providing crucial information to her allies as needed. Though she misplayed her knowledge is power advantage, she's the only original Kele member still standing, which is quite impressive.
Sage has been Savannah's nemesis from the very beginning of the season, working to remove her from the game since they came back together at the merge. But a series of votes with Savannah instead of against Savannah lead to the people who would have helped her send Savannah to the jury on the jury themselves. But Sage has thought out some excellent strategy throughout the season, it just hasn't always been executed.
And Kristina came into this game hating every part of being outdoors, but has experienced an emotional metamorphosis on her own journey that no one can take away from her. While her gameplay hasn't always been the cleanest, and she misplayed the immunity idol she found, she did seem to have good, genuine relationships with the people she chose to align with even if her most recent move was to blindside her closest ally in the game.
So while it feels like there are clear front-runners, we never know how the jury is going to base their vote. They spent the whole game wanting Rizo and Savannah out, so there's always a possibility no one votes for them in the end out of spite—we've seen it before. And considering there's still 5 people in the game and only 3 spots at Final Tribal Council, who's to say Rizo and Savannah won't both be on the jury for the final leg of the game?
We'll find out soon enough when the finale kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. EST on CBS and Paramount+!