Survivor Game Changers Episode 5: Who Won’t Be Surviving Tribal?

After Malcolm showed that nobody is safe in Survivor Game Changers, it’s become that much more difficult to predict who will be surviving tribal council.

Welcome, everyone, to the fourth ever edition of Surviving Tribal, where we make virtual bets on fake odds made by one person who has too much fun thinking about who will get voted out of Survivor each episode. This week tackles Survivor Game Changers episode 5, “Dirty Deed,” following the fallout of Malcolm Freberg finishing 17th out of 20 in a crazy twist never seen before.

Last week we saw huge bets on Malcolm by Cody Williams and myself with the full knowledge that two tribes would be voting out one player. We figured that Tai saying “there would be fireworks” at tribal council meant that he likely had found an idol in the episode, and it only made sense to bet big on the biggest threat on Nuku.

Knowing that two of three tribes are likely safe this week, the odds are back to being a bit more predictable. Here are the betting odds for the Survivor Game Changers players’ chances of surviving tribal council tonight.

J.T. Thomas – 4/3 (Cody: $300, Daniel: $200, Cheryl: $100)

The entire Nuku tribe is convinced that J.T. Thomas screwed them over by revealing something about their Sierra vote, and they are entirely right. No matter how he fights it, he doesn’t have the numbers to take out Sandra. Even if it means further decimating the Nuku tribe by eliminating strength, J.T. put himself in a position where he has to be dealt with.

Sandra Diaz-Twine – 2/1 (Cody: $20, Daniel: $115)

The only way I see J.T. surviving tribal is if he convinces people, somehow, to take Sandra over him. It’s clear that she’s running the show in a very pompous way, and she’s a liability when it comes to reward and immunity challenges that aren’t strictly puzzle-based. Perhaps being a perceived goat to be taken to the end is her strategy once more, but the third time isn’t a charm when everyone knows the strategy.

Ozzy Lusth – 3/1 (Cheryl: $25)

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Despite being a bit under the radar compared to his place in Survivor history, Ozzy Lusth has been getting that old school hero edit where he’s shown providing for his tribe. We’ve already seen how sudden highlights of characters works so far in Survivor Game Changers, and I fear his camp ethic isn’t going to overcome the possibility he wins every single individual immunity challenge come merge time.

Debbie Wanner – 3/1 (Cody: $20)

As we’ve seen in preview videos, Debbie Wanner has got into some sort of argument with Brad Culpepper. That, or she just went over the top in a dramatic way to get attention in a very trashy reality TV kind of way. Either way, targeting the tribe leader when you don’t have the numbers is only going to send you home quicker.

Hali Ford – 4/1 (Cheryl: $25)

Were it not for Debbie’s antics, Hali Ford would have even worse odds of making the merge. Yet, she’s been graced with more than just twist luck this week. Still, Mana might want to get rid of a clear cut number ahead of the merge, even though old Mana is down to six compared to the original ten Nuku castaways still playing.

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Jeff Varner – 4/1

I feel like the editors for Survivor Game Changers have been very subtle with what they insert and take out each episode. Malcolm mentioned that if Tony goes out, Caleb and him will follow, and that’s exactly what happened, in order. The sudden highlighting of Jeff Varner’s emotional downturn losing challenges for his tribe or losing other players is one of those “I’ve got a bad feeling about this” calls.

Cirie Fields – 5/1

Cirie started out as a central character to Survivor Game Changers, but has since been relegated to mostly background duty. That’s part of Tavua missing tribal council all the time, so whoever gets out first from their tribe will feel sudden regardless. Cirie is the biggest strategic target in her tribe, so it makes sense to get rid of her before she can stretch her legs at a merge.

Zeke Smith – 5/1

Zeke’s been a bit invisible lately, but that doesn’t mean that people aren’t paying attention to who he’s talking to and aligning with early. If people think that Troyzan has an idol or is willing to partner with Cirie to play an idol on their behalf if push comes to shove, Zeke becomes a safer target.

Brad Culpepper – 6/1

Now that we know Debbie’s explicitly targeting Brad Culpepper this episode, I’ve changed the odds from 10/1 today to 6/1 just because he has a target on his back. Even though I think he won’t actually go out, you can never be too sure in the game of Survivor.

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Aubry Bracco – 7/1

Aubry has been disappointingly quiet so far on Survivor Game Changers, and I don’t expect that to end anytime soon. Perhaps she will have an important role when the merge comes around, but her edit suggests she will have a muted role in this season for some time. Still, that means she’s still around!

Michaela Bradshaw – 8/1

Strength counts for everything when the tribes become smaller, and it’s clear that if J.T. is getting targeted, Michaela Bradshaw needs to stick around for her strength. Oddly enough, she hasn’t had the opportunity to blast through challenges like she did in Millennials vs. Gen X, meaning she doesn’t have a latent target on her back like other strong players do.

Tai Trang – 8/1

After saving Sierra with an idol play (granted, with a lot of help from Brad Culpepper), Tai has successfully played his first idol. That will be a huge help for him as he goes forward toward the merge, as it’s clear he’s not a deeply strategic mind. He is a nice fellow, though, but you don’t take out jury threats this early.

Andrea Boehlke – 8/1

Andrea Boehlke has been the only person Troyzan has (kind of) maligned as he’s down in the numbers, meaning she may be the target of an idol blindside if he does end of having to play it. However, she’s still enjoyed by her tribe and hasn’t rustled any feathers so far, meaning she is likely candidate to be surviving tribal tonight.

Sarah Lacina – 10/1

It’s clear that Sarah has some kind of role in the tribe, and that she’s willing to flip on people and play like a criminal instead of a cop. A Stealth R Us version of Cops R Us may be the perfect role for Sarah, as it gives her the authority to make moves when she has to without being the target of said moves.

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Sierra Dawn-Thomas – 10/1

She was very close to getting eliminated with huge odds last week, but I still affirm that she’s not a target this week. She’s starting to make her presence known a bit more, and with that Legacy Advantage coming up I’m sure she’ll be around to use it at the merge, if not later.

Troyzan Robertson – 20/1

Troyzan has an idol. It would take something stupid to happen for him to go home this week.

Survivor Game Changers Episode 5 Money Totals

Daniel: $600

Cheryl: $532.50

Cody: $380

Next: Survivor Game Changers: Ranking All 33 Previous Seasons

Survivor Game Changers episode 5, “Dirty Deed,” airs at 8 p.m. ET later tonight.