The Survivor 48 finale, "Only One of Yous Can Win," airs on Wednesday, May 21, on CBS and Paramount+. There are five players left competing for the $1 million prize. Unfortunately, of those five players, there are only three players who actually have a realistic chance to win $1 million and become the Sole Survivor of season 48.
Of course, there are a number of variables that could shake things up. As I've mentioned a few times, we have two immunity challenges, two Tribal Councils, and a fire-making challenge in the episode. Those could shake out any number of ways.
Based on how the season has played out, there are a few players who have built solid resumes and narratives around their gameplay. Those are the players with a chance to win while the others are probably destined for a runner-up finish.
Let's just dive in and talk about those three players who can win Survivor 48.
Kyle Fraser
Kyle Fraser is the first player I want to mention. In terms of resume, Kyle has the resume to win Survivor 48 right now, and there's nothing that could happen in the finale that could take away from what he's done so far. Kyle started the game by getting an ally, Kamilla Karthigesu, and a hidden immunity idol. Then, he played the hidden immunity idol, saved himself in the game, and then became part of the majority alliance with the same people who tried to vote him out before the merge. He played double agent all season long, and he helped save his No. 1 ally multiple times. He has an immunity win, and he just orchestrated the biggest blindside of the game in taking out Shauhin Davari.
In regards to Kyle's edit, I have to imagine is at the very least part of Final Three at Final Tribal Council. Kyle has had the opportunity to walk everyone through his thought process many, many times in the game. His decision-making process and moves have gotten a lot of airtime when others haven't necessarily gotten the privelege.
There's still a lot of game left, but the last few weeks, it's really felt like Kyle has emerged as the frontrunner to win Survivor 48. Now, that could be by design, so the show has a big surprise during the finale, but that's not exactly Survivor style. Of course, the show likes some drama, but when you look at the full season, Kyle feels like the protagonist of this story.
Kamilla Karthigesu
We can't talk about Kyle without talking about Kamilla. She's been by his side in this super secret alliance since the beginning of the game. Of course, some players have noticed just how close these players might be, and they are sitting on the jury. That is the ultimate compliment to their game. When someone came for Kyle or Kamilla, they figured out a way to switch things up and get rid of that player.
Now, Kamilla has not just been Kyle's sidekick. She's been awesome from a strategic perspective. Many times, it looked like Kyle was just following her lead, like when they got to the Vula camp after the tribe swap. She solved Kyle's Beware Advantage, and then she suggested that he play his idol after Shauhin searched Kyle's bag in front of her. Sure, Kyle has helped her out, and they both have a claim for the Shauhin vote. She's played a great game!
There's reason to believe that Kamilla will win at least one immunity challenge in the finale the Final Four or Final Five, based on the promo for the episode. She already has one challenge win so far. If she can get two or even three immunity wins, she has to be the winner of Survivor 48.
Ultimately, I think Kamilla will have a hard time separating her game from Kyle, so if they are both in the Final Three, that could be tricky for both of them. With eight jurors, technically, someone could win with three votes and a tiebreaker from the third runner-up. That could be in play if Kamilla and Kyle get to the end together with someone like Joe Hunter.
Joe Hunter
Speaking of Joe, he's the last player left who has a realistic chance to win the game. First of all, Joe has gotten a great edit all season. He's been part of the majority alliance since the merge, and he is perceived as the leader of that alliance, clearly, by several players on the jury. It will be really interesting to see just how much credit or blame Joe gets for his take on the game and how things played out.
Joe has been a challenge beast this season. His tribe only lost one challenge that he was a part of, and he's won four individual immunities. He needs two wins to break the all-time Survivor record for immunity wins in a season. Joe has the resume to win, but it will come down to what these players value. Is it about strategy? Is it about limiting mistakes? Is it about challenge wins and being safe throughout the game? We'll see.
Clearly, Joe's best chance to win is sitting next to Mitch and Eva at the Final Three, which means Kyle and Kamilla get voted out at the Final Five and Final Four. There's some reason to believe that's not going to happen, so it's going to be hard for Joe to beat Kamilla or Kyle when they've clearly made some moves that he hasn't exactly been a part of recently.
Why Eva Erickson and Mitch Guerra probably won't win Survivor 48
This is not a knock on either player. In some seasons, Eva and Mitch could win Survivor based on how they played this season. Unfortunately, this is just a math problem based on how the season played out.
For the longest time, Mitch has been a critical number with the majority alliance, but he hasn't been the swing vote (yet) or driver of the overall strategy like Kyle and Kamilla. He hasn't performed in challenges to be considered against Joe. Unfortunately, at least one of those three players is going to be in the Final Three if Mitch makes it. And, based on his game, he simply can't beat either of those three players even if he were to win the last two immunity challenges or the fire-making challenge. He simply hasn't been involved in determining the outcome of the game like three other players at this stage have.
Now, the opposite is true for Eva. She has an immunity challenge win this season, but she hasn't dominated the competition like her ally, Joe. For Eva to win, she probably would have had to play a better physical game or do something strategically to separate herself from the crowd. My fear with Eva, even if she wins the next few challenges or wins at fire, is that she will probably be seen as someone who just did whatever Joe wanted to do all season long. We know that wasn't the case, but it just feels like the players believe Joe was the one calling the shots for the majority alliance and Eva was just going along with that. That's the narrative, but again, I don't think that's the truth.
It will be hard for Eva to explain that to the jury, especially if she's sitting at the end of the game with Joe. He's going to play up his own accolades, and I think that hurts her game.
We'll see how it plays out in the Survivor 48 finale on Wednesday, May 21!