All 5 remaining Survivor 48 players ranked by who's most likely to win

We're officially down to five players left in Survivor 48, and there's only one episode left. We've been ranking the Survivor 48 players by who is most likely to win all season. Now, I have a really good feeling about who is actually going to win Survivor 48.

The Survivor 48 finale is going to be a wild one, so make sure you're tuning in on Wednesday night at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. It's a three-hour episode, double the time we've been spending with these players each week.

We ranked the remaining Survivor 48 players by who is most likely to win. Unfortunately, it's going to be a longshot for a few players. Let's get the ranking started with Mitch Guerra.

5. Mitch Guerra

“Icarus Time” – Castaways must decide between choosing heart over head as they enter the final six and last stage of the game. Letters from home feed the soul and strengthen bonds during this week’s reward at the sanctuary. Then, two castaways orchestrate a particularly convincing ruse, escalating the remaining tribe’s paranoia on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, May 14 (8:00-9:30 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and available to stream on Paramount+ (live and on-demand for Paramount+ with SHOWTIME | CBS

Mitch has been in the mix all season long, but he's failed on a few occasions to make big moves. He's done what he needed to do, including cut ties with possible allies to stay in the game. Unfortunately, I just don't see a scenario that Mitch could win Survivor 48 without a huge come-from-behind victory. That probably includes Mitch winning the final two challenges of the season and then opting to make fire to take out one of the bigger threats of the season.

As Khris Brayton of Surviving Tribal laid out, Mitch needs to win immunity at the Final Five and find a way to blindside Joe Hunter or Kyle Fraser. Then, he has to win immunity again at the Final Four, and instead of taking his spot in the Final Three, he has to give that up and knock out Kyle or Joe, whichever is left standing, to win Survivor 48.

The chance of that actually happening is minimal.

4. Eva Erickson

“Coconut Etiquette’” – One castaway struggles coming to grips with betraying their allies. Power in the game is up for grabs when one castaway is chosen for a journey and must decide if the risk is worth the reward. Then, paranoia runs rampant when a castaway knowingly tries to stir up chaos on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, May 7 (8:00 - 9:30 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and available to stream on Paramount+*. Jeff Probst serves as host and executive producer. Pictured: Eva Erickson. Photo: | CBS

Eva Erickson has done an amazing job on this season. Unfortunately, there might just be too many bigger threats ahead of her at this stage of the game. To get to the end, Eva had to work closely with her ally, Joe, but now, she probably needs Joe out of the way if she wants a chance at winning Survivor 48.

For Eva to win, she probably needs two wins in the last immunity challenges, or she needs to find a way to play her idol to make an incredible move that impresses the jury. I don't know if that's going to happen. There's just a lot of ground to make up given how Eva has played. I think the jury will view her game as playing a little bit safe, even if she doesn't feel sticking it out with the majority alliance was a safe move. The perception is that Joe was leading the alliance, and getting the jury to believe she was making the calls, even if she was, will be a challenge.

3. Kamilla Karthigesu

Kamilla Karthigesu made a huge move in the penultimate episode of the season with Kyle. She has a great resume with an immunity win and some successful strategic plays. Like Eva, she might just be allies with the right and wrong person. If they both make it to the end, Kamilla will likely have a hard time differentiating her game from his. As we've seen, Kamilla, at times, has been key driver of that alliance's strategy, though. She is responsible for keeping Kyle in the game by solving his idol, telling him to play it, downplaying that they were close when they switched to the Vula tribe, and in other ways. Those moves have allowed this secret alliance to operate under the radar all season. That will be a huge reveal at Final Tribal Council if they can make it there.

Now, Kamilla still has an uphill battle in the finale. She still needs to improve her resume by winning challenges, making another big move or two, and then potentially winning the fire-making challenge. Some combination of that could push Kamilla to a win, but it's probably not all that likely.

As things stand, Kamilla likely only wins Survivor 48 one way: sitting next to Mitch and Eva at Final Tribal.

2. Joe Hunter

Joe has played an incredible game of Survivor. He's won four individual immunity challenges, and he has a chance to set the all-time Survivor record for immunity challenge wins in a season. He needs to win each of the last two challenges to do that, and it's definitely possible that will happen.

There are many ways Joe will win Survivor 48, but I do have some concerns about how the jury views him and his strategy. We all know it's not true that Joe has been controlling the game, but he's been th figurehead most of the season for the alliance. That puts him in a weird and potentially bad spot heading into the finale. He's either going to have to prove that he was actually making all the moves to get credit for his gameplay, or he's going to have to deflect responsibility. Both of those options are slippery slopes at Final Tribal.

Heading into the finale, Joe has one big move that he needs to make to win Survivor 48. He has to get rid of Kyle. If he's sitting next to Kyle at the end, I think Joe loses because Kyle will find a way to spin Joe's moves in a way that throws him under the bus. Kyle can also explain how he was playing chess all season while Joe was playing checkers.

I still like Joe's chances of winning Survivor 48, but it's clear that there is one frontrunner, and it's not Joe.

1. Kyle Fraser

My Enemies Are Plottin' — “My Enemies Are Plottin’” – The reward challenge is good enough to sing for when Jeff announces what is on the line for the winners. A rice negotiation with Jeff is completed in almost record time. Then, at tribal it’s a toss-up when two players on the bottom begin to target each other, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, April 30 (8:00-9:30 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and available to stream on Paramount+ (live and on demand for Paramount+ with SHOWTIME subscribers, or on demand for | CB

Kyle Fraser should be the winner of Survivor 48 if he takes care of business. He's the only player who, as things stand, sit next to any combination of the Final Three and win against any of the other players. He's made the most moves. He's played the whole game in a secret alliance, but he also was a double agent of the majority alliance, and he determined how several moves played out while deflecting suspicion away from himself. It's really been a masterclass in new era Survivor. Along with Kamilla, Kyle has navigated a treacherous game, remained patient, and made a great case to win $1 million.

Of course, the story isn't over. Arguably, Kyle will have to be better down the stretch in challenges and in strategy than he has all season to pull this off. He can win this season in a number of ways, but he still has work to do. He's also going to have to nail his Final Tribal speech and show just how crucial he was to this whole game, but I think he can do it pretty easily.

So, that's how I think things will shake out. Kyle is clearly in the lead, but Survivor is an unpredictable game. We just have to wait and see how things shake out during the season finale on May 21!