The Survivor 48 premiere aired on Wednesday, Feb. 26, and now, it's time to make some predictions about the players most likely to win the new season. I've done these most likely-to-win lists the last few seasons after the season premiere, and they're super fun to track all season long.
First impressions are everything in Survivor. In Survivor 48, these new players will be judged by their fellow players just based on how they performed challenges, how they behaved at camp, and who they spoke to just in the first few days in the game.
Look at someone like Andy Rueda in Survivor 47. He battled misconceptions about himself and his game throughout the season because of how he reacted to a few situations during the first few days of the game. While we didn't quite see that in the Survivor 48 premiere, we did see how these players reacted to the adversity of the game. That's basically what I'm judging my winner predictions on so far.
I also have some criteria that I use when making predictions. Sometimes, it's a gut feeling. Sometimes, players show characteristics of the previous winners. Not to brag, but I did have Rachel LaMont, the winner of Survivor 47, on my list of players who I thought would win after the season 47 premiere, so...
The Survivor 48 premiere is tougher than previous seasons because I don't know if I have a read yet on most of these players. I had to rewatch their intro interviews to hear more about how they plan to play their game.
So, let's get to it! These are the six players who are the most likely to win Survivor 48.
Charity Nelms
Charity Nelms of the Civa tribe seems like a solid pick to win Survivor 48 after the premiere. I don't have a lot of reasons why Charity is going to win Survivor. I just got a good vibe from her in the season premiere. She seems like someone who is going to operate in the shadows until it's time to make a big move.
Her story really resonates with a lot of people. In her pre-season interview, she shared that she didn't like the path her life was on, and she changed careers, became a flight attendant, and changed her life trajectory. I'm all about a good story, and it feels like Charity might be the person this Survivor 48 story is about.
You'll also notice that this list is mostly Civa and Lagi members. I don't know, but something about the Vula tribe feels off to me. I'm getting Yanu tribe from Survivor 46 vibes. Obviously, the winner of that season (Kenzie Petty) came from that tribe, but I have a feeling the Vula tribe is going to lose a lot of people quickly, based on how overmatched they have been in the first few challenges. Had Kyle Fraser not smashed his glass jug in the head-to-head challenge against Kevin Leung, the Vula tribe would be 0-for-3 in challenges with no supplies.
Mitch Guerra
I think Mitch Guerra is a slam dunk pick to make it super far in Survivor 48. Will he win? That's anyone's guess right now, but on paper, in the introductory interviews, and throughout the season premiere, Mitch is one player I'm going to watch closely. We didn't see much of him in the season premiere, and I think that's a good thing. Sometimes, the camera gravitates toward the bigger personalities, and historically, we know how things go for those players.
With Mitch's background as a P.E. Coach and teacher, he's reasonably athletic, compassionate, and empathetic. And, just being a P.E. teacher, what it takes to do that job with the awareness, multi-tasking, thinking on your feet, handling emotions, and more translates to Survivor. I think those qualities will clearly give Mitch an upper hand.
Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla Karthigesu is another player in Survivor 48 who seems like a favorite. Based on her pre-season interview, Kamilla feels like one of those players who is overlooked simply because she's not a challenge threat. That's going to work to her strengths playing a good strategic, social game. For most of the new era, that's what the winner of Survivor has done. It's not necessarily about all the big moves you make; it's about surviving and having a good enough resume at the end to win.
On the Civa tribe, Kamilla seems like she's already in a strong position. She seems to be making some strong bonds to start the game, and that's what it's all about. We'll see how she progresses over the course of the game, but she seems like a fighter. That's the main reason I think she's going to go far in Survivor 48.
Thomas Krottinger
Thomas Krottinger is basically the Sam Phalen of Survivor 48. In the Lagi tribe, Thomas is in a great spot. He's in the California Girls Alliance with Shauhin Davari and Joe Hunter, but he also has a strong connection with Bianca Roses. Of course, Thomas will have to make a big move at some point, but making strong connections early in the game can make all the difference in making it to the end of the game.
For me, the Lagi tribe seems like favorites in every challenge. They clearly have a phsyically dominant group of players compared to the other tribes. In those early challenges, there's a lot of teamwork involved. There's almost always a puzzle element, but getting an early lead in every challenge can't hurt Lagi's chances of winning. There's a lot to like about that group, but Thomas seems to be in the best spot of that group.
Bianca Roses
Speaking of Bianca, I also really like her chances of going far and even winning Survivor 48! I got really good vibes from Bianca in the pre-season interviews. She seems to be super charismatic, smart, and ready to play a big game. She's on a great tribe, or so it appears. Early in the game, I tend to choose players to win who don't appear to be super threatening. I feel like Bianca falls into that category, but I don't think she will have any hesitation in making a big move.
My only reservation is that Bianca might be the odd person out of the Lagi tribe. It might not come to this, but if Thomas is in with the California Girls Alliance and Joe and Eva Erickson are in an alliance, Thomas might be Bianca's only ally.
Kevin Leung
Kevin Leung is the only player I picked from the Vula tribe to win Survivor 48. I can't see a way that Kevin would be voted out before the merge, and then, after that, all bets are off. He's the strongest player on the Vula tribe, even with his shoulder injury, and he looks to be playing a great social game, connecting with almost every player on his tribe in the season premiere.
Some people who play Survivor just have this energy and spirit that the other players lack. It's early in the game, but Kevin is already handling the adversity in a positive way. My only question is if Kevin's shoulder injury will linger and make the game harder for him, but hey, not being a challenge threat at times might actually benefit his game.
Survivor is all about perception. As we have seen in every season of the new era, the perceived threats are targeted much earlier in the game than they used to be. If you are someone other players think has a good chance to win, they will vote you out. So, when I picked these players, I tried to keep that in mind.
We'll see how these predictions change throughout the new season.