Survivor 47 is already off to a great start! After watching the season premiere and meeting the new cast, I have a lot of thoughts about who I think I going to win the game.
It's still way too early to know, really, who is going to take over this game! In Survivor 46, I don't think I considered Kenzie Petty a real, real contender to win the game until the final six or so. So, I'm probably going to be very wrong! But, let's get to it!
Picking five players to win Survivor 47 after only one episode is basically an exercise in the process of elimination based on what we've heard teased about the season. Jon Lovett obviously can't win because he was voted out first in a shocking twist even for Jeff Probst. And, sorry, Andy Rueda, but there's no chance he's winning the game after his performance post-immunity challenge in the season premiere.
First, Jeff Probst revealed that this season is like Game of Thrones, meaning that there's always someone coming for the top spot. To me, that means some of the more obvious and aggressive players are going to be eliminated more quickly.
I think that rules out Sam Phalen and TK Foster who are easily the two physically strong competitors. I don't know if they are going to do the best in every challenge, but I do think it's clear, just looking at the cast, those two players will be targeted very early if they make it to the merge. Now, we're down to 14 players who can still win.
We can easily cut it to 12 players after witnessing Rome Cooney and Gabe Ortis's shady (in the eyes of their tribe mates) behavior looking for idols. I don't know how many times we've seen players make the mistake of aggressively and obviously looking for idols as soon as they hit the beach.
Now, choosing players is a bit easier! I think we can still cut the list of players really in the running for the title of Sole Survivor down to 10 based on the first episode. Aysha Welch, who was great in the premiere, volunteered to try to win her tribe the supplies after losing the marooning challenge. The volunteers always get targeted! Plus, she is a Survivor superfan and contributor to Rob Has a Podcast. Teeny Chirichillo knows this, and if Aysha has willingly withheld this from the group, Teeny already has a play to reveal Aysha as untrustworthy at any point in the game. Now, we're down to 11 players left!
From there, let's do a little math. The oldest player in the game almost never wins. I'm sorry, Sue Smey, but that's the reason for leaving her out. And, on top of that, four of the last six winners have been women!
To me, there are realistically 10 players left with a real, real chance of winning the game.
- Sol Yi
- Kyle Ostwald
- Tiyana Hallums
- Sierra Wright
- Anika Dhar
- Caroline Vidmar
- Kishan Patel
- Genevieve Mushaluk
- Teeny Chirichillo
- Rachel LaMont
Of those 10 players, I picked five who I think have the best chance to win the game. Honestly, this based mostly on vibes since we didn't get a lot of strategy in the first episode.
Tiyana Hallums
Tiyana Hallums is the first Native Hawaiian to play Survivor! And, I just have a good feeling about how the game started for Tiyana. We didn't get to see a ton of Tiyana because there were 17 other people and lots of drama on the Gata tribe to show. We did get to see Tiyana excel at the challenges, eat a bug, and share a little bit of perspective about how she's going to play.
In her intro confessional, Tiyana also gave the audience a glimpse of her strategy. She said she wants the rest of the group to think she's laid back, but she's going to be doing the work behind the scenes to make sure she's there at the end.
Tiyana is clearly one of the best athletes and biggest competitors in the game, but there are other bigger, stronger physical threats. It's always good, in my opinion, to be one of the best in challenges but rarely the best in challenges. I think Tiyana can fall into that category and play that role until it's time to go win the game. Plus, she's starting on what I consider to be the strongest tribe, physically. They'll have to find a way to solve puzzles and not flip their boat over, but I'd rather be on Tuku than Gata; that's for sure.
My only fear with Tiyana is that she seems like she wants to play a little more aggressive style than what has worked in previous seasons. It's all about timing. If Tiyana gets the timing right, she'll be there at the end.
Genevieve Mushaluk
Genevieve was one of the players to watch in the season premiere, but we didn't get to know her that well in the Survivor 47 premiere, so this is cheating a little bit. I'm using some of the promos and things Genevieve said in the promos to try to understand how she is going to play.
On top of that, I also looked at when Kenzie Petty was featured in the Survivor 46 sneak peek. Kenzie was the last person that fans saw on screen in that season preview. Obviously, she went on to win the season. Guess who fans saw last in the Survivor 47 preview? Well, that'd be Genevieve. Will lightning strike twice? We'll see!
Like Tiyana, I do worry that Genevieve is going to play too aggressively too early and will become a target early in the game. In one of the previews for the season, Genevieve mentioned that she's going to be aggressive. Given what Jeff has said about those in power getting challenged in a teaser for the new season, there is some concern about how far Genevieve will get in the game.
Kishan Patel
You know when you just have a good feeling about a Survivor player? That's why Kishan is on the list! There was nothing too notable that he did or said, but I like his vibe. Ultimately, Survivor is not about who is the most likable, but I have to believe after watching this show for so long that it definitely helps if you are pleasant to be around. I mean, Ben Katzman in Survivor 46 made it to the final three riding the good vibes train! It's a strategy in Survivor's New Era.
But, I don't think that's Kishan's game. He is an ER doctor, and he told the audience that he's very good at it. To be an ER doctor, you have to make quick decisions, be ready for anything at a moment's notice, and have a level of confidence to be able to perform well at the right time no matter what. All of those things translate directly into the game of Survivor.
I'd love to know more about Kishan's strategy to get to the end, but he doesn't strike me as a huge physical threat or a super aggressive strategic and social player. As you can see, those are two things that seem like red flags lately on Survivor, so without those traits, Kishan has a shot to go very far in the game.
Rachel LaMont
Rachel had an interesting edit in the season premiere. Most of her story on the Gata tribe so far has revolved around her relationship with Andy. We learned from Andy that his numbers game strategy required at least two or three good connections on the tribe. After bonding with Jon, Andy tries to bond with Rachel. At first, Rachel seemed like she was possibly considering working with Andy, but then he said something about getting up early, doing yoga, and chatting on the beach. He has a very specific view of what their alliance would look like, and it is very clearly not what Rachel has in mind for her game.
Later, Andy can't sleep and suffers from self-doubt, and he asks Rachel to come talk to him. She does what he asks, but she isn't down with it at all. She wants to get back to the shelter to make sure that no one thinks that they are scheming and strategizing.
It's so early in the game, but those few scenes told me everything about Rachel's strategy, and I think that's a winning strategy. She knows that it's smart to stay in the middle, and she's willing to speak up for herself and stick to her game when another player is trying to acquire allyship for their strategy.
Rachel also voiced her concern about keeping Andy around when the rest of her tribe seemed adamant that it was the right play. To me, that shows Rachel, on Day 3 and having never been to tribal council before, is already thinking way down the line.
Teeny Chirichillo
Teeny is another one of those players who just feels like they are going to make a deep run in the game. Despite not being the biggest or strongest, Teeny held her own in both of the challenges, but it's the social and strategic parts of the game that I was most impressed with.
For one, Teeny seems like good vibes and seems to have a good work ethic without rocking the boat at camp. She seems interested in playing a good social game and forming strong connections early, but she's not overly obvious about it. When players have that natural ability to basically become a social chameleon, it's usually a good thing.
Most importantly, Teeny made a subtle yet big move in the game when connecting with Aysha. It was a smart play for so many reasons, but basically, Aysha volunteered to take the challenge to win supplies for the Lavo tribe. When she was unsuccessful and arrived at camp, Teeny pulled Aysha aside and mentioned that she's a huge fan of Aysha's commentary on Rob Has a Podcast. Teeny also promised not to reveal that information or blow Aysha's game up by letting everyone know that she cohosts a podcast about Survivor and knows the game inside and out.
Props to Teeny for knowing that information. And, the way Teeny, who may genuinely be a fan of Aysha's, made an instant ally and formed some kind of connection was impressive. Within Aysha's first few hours at camp, Teeny formed a solid bond and offered to keep Aysha's secret if she wanted it kept secret.
That seemed like such a savvy move on the first day of the game. If Teeny keeps making moves like that, the sky is the limit, for sure.
That's the list of players who seem most likely to win Survivor 47 after one episode!