Survivor 50 filming is finally underway in Fiji! Jeff Probst just announced the news on Friday, June 6. Now that the players are officially in the game, I thought it would be a good idea to share the players most likely to win Survivor 50.
Of course, there's so much that we don't know. Most of Survivor is determined by who is on your initial tribe, so that initial draw is going to be so interesting. Looking at the list of the 24 returning players in the Survivor 50 cast, there are definitely a few players who seem more likely to win than others based on some of the trends we've seen in the new era of Survivor.
First of all, I think any of these 24 players can win. Well, at least 22 of them can; we still don't know who is playing from Survivor 49. So much of what happens on Survivor is luck. Some of these players made crucial mistakes when they played last time or in their multiple appearances. Any of them could put together a winning resume.
With that said, the Survivor 50 players who played a long time ago or played multiple times are at an incredible disadvantage. The game is different now. It's much faster, so while that might help some players, we've all seen exactly how Cirie Fields can swing a vote in her favor. We've seen Ozzy Lusth run off challenge win after challenge win to stay in the game. We've seen all of that, and so have all those other players, many of whom are Survivor superfans. It's definitely harder for some of these players than others, simply based on reputation.
I don't think any of the winners are going to win for a second time. Kyle Fraser and Dee Valladares, I'm sorry, but I'm not letting you get anywhere near Final Tribal Council. They played incredible games in Survivor 48 and Survivor 45. They will not be able to play that game this season. Their threat level is going to be way too high.
The last thing I want to mention before diving in is that there are 24 players playing Survivor 50, but there are 26 days in the game. So, I'm expecting to see some Tribal Council twists, multiple players going home in episodes. That means, unless the game truly changes, that we're going to see a lot of challenges. I mean, think about it. In Survivor 48, we had 14 players voted out in 26 days. Eva Erickson knocked Kamilla Karthigesu out in the fire-making challenge, but I believe there were 13 immunity challenges. To get to a Final Four with 24 players, we're looking at possibly 19 immunity challenges, or the producers will have to get really creative with the voting blocks at mergatory to kick more people out of the game. It's going to be interesting.
Why does that matter? Well, I would obviously give the advantage in those scenarios to the challenge beasts, right? We've seen a number of these players win a lot of immunity challenges in Survivor. These players are going to be voting a ton!
So, let's take a look at the six players I think have the best chance to win Survivor 50.
Aubry Bracco
Aubry Bracco is one of my favorite Survivor players ever! She's definitely played well enough to win during her three times on the show. Her best showing was during her first appearance on Survivor: Kaoh Rong, where she finished runner-up to Michele Fitzgerald. Obviously, this is one of the most debated Survivor seasons based simply on the number of fans who believe Aubry deserved to win.
Aubry played Survivor two more times in Game Changers and Edge of Extinction. She finished fifth on Game Changers before a rough time on Edge of Extinction. Clearly, the target was on her back when she played for a third time, and she couldn't really find her footing in the game. Still, she's one of the most accomplished Survivor players between season 30 and the start of the new era.
I think the time between Aubry's last appearance in Survivor: Edge of Extinction (season 38) and Survivor 50 could make all the difference this time. I don't think she's going to have as big of a target on her back this time around. It's been a while since she had a lot of success in the game, but it's going to come down to Aubry's connections in the game. If she can lock in with a tight alliance and flex her challenge muscles a little bit, I have a good feeling about Aubry.
The winning strategy recently in the new era has been this: make solid relationships, don't overachieve too early in the game, stick to the bottom or middle for as long as possible, and then make the move. I don't think recent winners like Kenzie Petty, Rachel LaMont, and Kyle Fraser meant to win that way specifically, but each player found themselves on the bottom with their back against the wall at one point in the game before they pulled themselves up with challenge wins, social dynamics, strategic choices, and advantages to win Survivor. That's Aubry's best strategy. If she reminds everyone that she's a strategic mastermind during the first vote, everyone will remember who she is and vote her out in short order.
Chrissy Hofbeck
Chrissy Hofbeck finished as the runner-up on Survivor: Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (season 35), but she had a really good chance to win simply because of how good she was in challenges. Chrissy tied the women's record for individual immunity wins in a season with four immunity wins. Rachel LaMont just tied that record in Survivor 47 when she went on to win.
Ultimately, Chrissy lost to Ben Driebergen on a 5-2-1 vote at Final Tribal Council, but the recipe for Chrissy to win Survivor 50 is right there. Can she play a more socially and strategically aware game this time? Can she continue to win challenges? If she can do either of those things, I think she has a good chance to go far in Survivor 50.
With several runner-ups on this cast, I'm interested to see if they change their game because they were so close to winning. Chrissy is definitely one of those players who could tweak her social and strategic game to help her more at the end.
Rick Devens
It's been a while since Rick Devens played Survivor. For me, Rick should have won Survivor: Edge of Extinction (season 38) had a couple of things gone his way. He played the best game, was the favorite heading into the final challenge, and needed just a little bit of help to get over the hump. Unfortunately, Chris Underwood, who won the season, came back from Extinction to win the last challenge, subbed himself into the fire-making challenge to knock Devens out of the game. Chris went on to win, while Devens ended up in fourth place.
Honestly, if Devens plays a similar game, he can win Survivor 50. It's been a while, but he was good at challenges, but his main strengths were his relationships and alliances. He handled adversity after getting voted out before the merge. He made his way back through the game. He navigated the game brilliantly before coming up a little bit short.
Charlie Davis
Charlie Davis isn't the only runner-up on this list, but he might be the most motivated after what happened in Survivor 46 when he was betrayed by his top ally in the game, Maria Shrime Gonzalez. Maria voted for Kenzie Petty, so instead of Charlie and Kenzie tying on a 4-4 vote, Kenzie won 5-3.
That doesn't take away that Charlie played a great season in Survivor 46, and he has the strategy to win Survivor 50. With so many big personalities this season, Charlie's best chance is to make a few key connections early in the game and then be patient until it's time to make a move. He played Survivor 46 almost perfectly, so just executing a little bit better or putting himself in a riskier position, like volunteering to make fire in the fire-making challenge, could seal the deal this time.
Ultimately, the fear is that Charlie will try to play too boldly because of what happened the first time, but I really, really think that holding back until the right time is going to be Charlie's best bet. He's good at challenges, too, which could be the difference with so many challenges this season, too.
Genevieve Mushaluk
Genevieve Mushaluk is one of the best strategic Survivor players of the new era. She showed that off a little too early in Survivor 47, became a target, and then pulled off one of the biggest moves in recent Survivor history with Operation Italy, along with Sam Phalen and Andy Rueda.
I don't think we've seen Genevieve let it all out, either. She walked a fine line between playing too cutthroat and sitting back last time. I hope that she really goes for it in Survivor 50 from the jump and tries to establish herself in a power position. Now, that might backfire on her, but I just want to see it play out.
Ultimately, I subscribe to the ride the middle for as long as possible in Survivor, and if Genevieve gets in a more secure alliance than she was in during Survivor 47, she can make the moves to win this game.
Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla is one of my favorite Survivor players of the new era. Honestly, she might be one of my favorite Survivor players of all time. She had the perfect strategy to win Survivor 48, and I feel like that same game plan could work in Survivor 50, too.
Kamilla didn't get to show the full repertoire in Survivor 48 because of how that season played out. She was comfortable sitting back and controlling the game from the shadows. That probably won't happen again, but I feel like she has a lot of tricks up her sleeve that remain unplayed.
I don't think people are going to trust Kamilla simply because of how she played Survivor 48, but there are a lot of other Survivor players in Survivor 50 who want to play like Kamilla wants to play with big moves, deception, and incredibly believable lies.
My one reservation with Kamilla is that we just saw what she's capable of in Survivor 48. That recency bias might work against her because her threat level is a little higher than it probably should be right out of the gate. She's incredibly valuable in the early part of the game because she's incredible at puzzles. She should make the merge simply because of that.
Joe Hunter
Look, I know this might be a controversial choice based on how he played last season, but Joe has been humbled a bit. Looking at how he was perceived by the players in his own season and the public, he's going to change how he will play the next time after he was manipulated and basically betrayed by his ally, Kyle, at the very end of Survivor 48. That move that Kyle pulled on Joe is basically what won him the season, but Joe was right there to win $1 million.
From a physical perspective, Joe is going to have a really good opportunity to make a deep run if he can make it to the merge. We obviously don't know what kinds of challenges are coming, but we know there will be a lot of them. As long as they aren't primarily puzzle-based, Joe should be a favorite to win almost every challenge he's a part of. Ozzy is out there, so is Jonathan. Colby was a force a long time ago (emphasis on long time ago). We saw Kyle hold his own in Survivor 48 when he needed to. And, there are some other great physical competitors, including Chrissy Hofbeck. Joe should stand out from the crowd. I do believe a challenge beast could win Survivor 50, and Joe might be the one to do it.
If his social and strategic game evolves a little bit, Joe could be sitting at the end again. Hopefully, he can seal the deal this time.
So, those are my predictions for the seven players who could win Survivor 50! I feel pretty good about my picks, but I have a feeling we're going to be waiting about a year to find out if I'm right!
Survivor 50 premieres on CBS in February 2026. We should learn the winner of the season sometime in mid-May 2026! Stay tubed for more news about the new season.