Rachel LaMont, Sam Phalen, Andy Rueda, Teeny Chirichillo, Genevieve Mushaluk, and Sue Smey are officially the final six players in Survivor 47. Caroline Vidmar was voted out in episode 12.
One of those players will win the $1 million prize and title of Sole Survivor, revealed during the two-part finale on Dec. 11 and Dec. 18.
Heading into the finale, there are players who have much better chances to win than others, but technically, every player remaining has some way to win Survivor 47. So, I made a case for how each player can win, including some hypothetical scenarios for how the last two episodes play out. I also shared a little bit about why each player won't win this season. There are still two Tribal Councils and a fire-making challenge left this season. Anything can happen!
So, let's start this exercise with heavy favorite to win Survivor 47, Rachel LaMont!
Rachel LaMont
How Rachel can win Survivor 47: Of the six remaining players, Rachel has the clearest path, so to speak, to The Final Three. Rachel has two advantages left, so realistically, she should be able to make it through two votes. She's also been a challenge beast lately, so she should have as good of a chance as anyone to make it to The Final Three.
For me, Rachel has been the favorite because she's just playing a better game than the rest. She's taking a lot of risks, and it's paying off for her. She's also been on the right side of some other big movies, like when Sol Yi saved her life in the game and gifted her the Safety Without Power advantage.
Rachel is playing the best physical game of anyone in the game. She has two individual immunity wins at critical times. She's playing a great social game with very few enemies. And, she's making great strategic moves to position herself for a Survivor 47 win. She is allied with the two weakest players in the game (Sue and Teeny), and Sue has an immunity idol. Sue and Teeny have shown a lot of loyalty. If Rachel plays her cards right, she could be sitting next to Sue and Teeny at the end or counting on their votes to win $1 million.
Why Rachel won't win: So, while I think Rachel seems most likely to win, does Survivor ever play out like that? Rachel is in the Maria Shrime Gonzalez position where it's her game to lose. The difference is that Rachel has legitimate allies while Maria did not. Genevieve is trying to wake up Teeny and others to the game Rachel is playing. If she's successful, Rachel could be the odd person out at the Final Four against some combination of Andy, Genevieve, Sam, and Teeny. That might be too much for Rachel to overcome, but that's what it will take to stop her from winning Survivor 47. At the very least, Rachel should be making fire for a spot in The Final Three based on the resources she has left in the game.
Genevieve Mushaluk
How Genevieve can win Survivor 47: Even though the numbers have come back to even, Genevieve is still in a rough spot in Survivor 47. She has new allies, Sam and Andy, who want to work with her. Teeny might be considering a move against Rachel, thanks to Genevieve's frank but honest assessment about Rachel being the favorite to win. Genevieve has been making moves all season, and even with her back to the wall for three votes in a row, she's still surviving, and that's the name of the game, literally.
If Genevieve can continue to make some magic happen and flip another tribal council with the jury watching, she can score major points. Personally, I think that move has to be made against Rachel. If Rachel is sitting at the end against Genevieve, Rachel will win. So, it's a matter of Genevieve taking out Rachel and then fending off Andy and Sam, who will definitely be trying to make a move against her, as well.
Why Genevieve won't win: Genevieve will win at the end against every single person aside from Rachel with how things have swung in the last two votes. Andy is making moves. He was the catalyst in several blindsides, so a few good moves from Andy could flip-flop Genevieve. Right now, though, she's played the better game, overall. The problem is that there's someone who is playing better and who has more advantages and more secure allies (Rachel). Along with that, everyone knows that Genevieve will have no problem stabbing her in the back.
Let's say Rachel wins immunity next or plays her idol at tribal council. If that happens, Genevieve is the target to go home, and I think Sam and Andy would happily write her name down because they know that she can beat them. And, it's much easier to take out Genevieve sixth than fifth.
Andy Rueda
How Andy can win Survivor 47: Andy has pulled himself from the bottom to near the top of Survivor 47. He's not conquered everyone yet, but he's close! He's made some of the biggest moves possible, including the Sierra Wright blindside and obviously taking out Caroline Vidmar, who had a great chance to win in episode 12. Andy's way to win Survivor 47 is pretty simple. He needs to make sure that he's not sitting next to Rachel and Genevieve, which means that he finds a way to take them out. If he can do that by some combination of winning an immunity challenge or making fire, he has a really good chance to win. Andy has a very compelling story, and I think that matters so much at this point of the game.
Why Andy won't win: We've seen this happen so many times. The person who engineers a big move becomes a massive target. Andy skirted by after the Sierra vote. He stirred the pot a little more between Kyle and Sue, and then he just pulled off a major blindside with a little bit of help. But, we saw how mad Sue, Caroline, Rachel, and Teeny were when they weren't picked for the reward. How mad do you think they will be at Andy for what he just did? I'm thinking very. So, Andy made his biggest case to win in the same episode that he just made himself a huge threat. Was it too early? If it was, Andy will not make The Final Three, and he'll be voting for the winner of Survivor 47 instead.
I like Andy's chances, though. They aren't great, but he's a tough out because he has connections with everyone. Did he just blow his own game up making a big move, though? We'll find out.
Sam Phalen
How Sam can win Survivor 47: Sam needs to do more work to win Survivor 47. While he has performed well in challenges, especially the tribe, team, and reward challenges, he hasn't won immunity individually yet. That's a huge issue for Sam's game, to me. He needs to win at least a few challenges down the stretch and probably make a move or two more to feel confident at all about winning. Like Andy, I don't think he can make The Final Three with Rachel or Genevieve and win. He might have a hard time winning against Andy, honestly, but it would be a toss-up.
Why Sam won't win: It's pretty simple. Sam was targeted early in the game, and then he wasn't deemed a big enough threat to vote out. That's kind of telling of how the players view Sam. He's not a huge challenge threat. He's not out there plotting and scheming, although he does get some credit for Operation: Italy. He's been a number at too many crucial votes to win right now. That could change, but that's the biggest argument against him at this point.
Sue Smey
How Sue can win Survivor 47: It's been a rough road lately for Sue. Yes, she finally got Kyle Ostwald out of the game, but she's seen her former Tuku alliance fall apart down the stretch. For the third episode in a row (Episode 10-12), a former Tuku player went home, including Sue's top allies, Gabe Ortis and Caroline, of course. Sue needs to make some huge moves to win, but the moves are there for her to make. She's already won an individual immunity and was runner-up a few times, as well. She's competed well. She has an advantage that she needs to use. She can score points there, honestly, and make a huge splash in one of the next two tribal councils, even if she doesn't play it for herself. And, she can score a lot more points with the jury when people find out that she's been kicking their butt for 26 days when she's double some of their ages. So, it's possible for Sue, but she has to make more moves than Andy and Sam and then make sure Rachel and Genevieve don't make the final four.
Why Sue won't win: Well, for the reasons listed, she just has too much work to do. It's a very narrow path to victory for Sue. Not impossible, but Rachel and Genevieve have to get voted out in the next two tribal councils. Sue has to make a big move. Even then, she's going to have a hard time making the case that she deserves to win when she wasn't really considered a threat at any point before the finale.
Teeny Chirichillo
How Teeny can win Survivor 47: Something miraculous would have to happen for Teeny to win. She hasn't had a lot of luck, but she's also struggled to make any big moves. Clearly, her strategy was to play an excellent social game and win with loyalty to her friends and allies. Unfortunately, Teeny might be out of options to win Survivor 47, even though she's so well-liked. I guess, for Teeny to win, the other players would have to make some major mistakes, Teeny would have to take advantage, and she'd have to hope some people made fools of themselves to lose the likability portion of the voting criteria for her to have a real chance to win.
Why Teeny won't win: Basically, for all the reasons I mentioned. This has not worked out for Teeny at all, and it seems like she decided to try to stay on the right side of the numbers instead of making a big move. There haven't been many opportunities, but the ones on the table, she has balked at throughout this season. So, it's hard to see someone who played that way rewarded at the end.
Watch the Survivor 47 finale on Wednesday, Dec. 11, and Wednesday, Dec. 18!