We're five episodes into Survivor 47, and I don't know who is going to win Survivor 47. There are too many players who are putting together good resumes to eventually win Survivor 47 and become the Sole Survivor. There are a few players who I know for a fact will not win Survivor 47.
Before proceeding, I'd like to say that I don't do this in a mean way. It's not like I just don't like these players. I'm simply looking at the first four episodes of the season. I'm also looking at Survivor history and how players tend to perceive other players.
There are many archetypes who can win Survivor, based on the first 46 seasons of the show. There are some playing styles that do not play well with the jury even if the player reaches the final three.
There are still seven episodes, likely, to go before the Survivor 47 finale. So far, five players have been voted out of this season. There are still 13 players who can win. We shared three players who can't win the game based on what they've done in the first five episodes.
Andy Rueda
Andy, Andy, Andy. Since the first episode of Survivor 47, Andy has definitely settled into his own rhythm and calmed down. He had been okay in challenges until episode 5. The whole Gata tribe has, honestly, and they seem to have some good vibes going, but I still feel like everything that happened in those first few days cemented Andy's loss in Survivor 47 even if he makes it all the way to the end.
And, I'm not really talking about the meltdown when he was exhausted. I'm more referring to how he didn't really connect with his tribe immediately and publicly flipped on Jon Lovett, who was his only ally in the game at that point.
We saw Andy go on the journey and connect with Caroline Vidmar and Teeny Chirichillo. He's playing up some of his antics to make himself seem less threatening, but I think it's only a matter of time. Is that a winning strategy? I don't think we've seen anyone argue that they played dumb, basically, to avoid being threatening and have that work when they aren't, like, a huge threat off the bat.
Andy is also calculated enough that I feel like he'll get himself into some trouble trying to make things happen after the merge, assuming he makes it that far.
Could Andy win everyone back over after that rough first impression? It's Survivor, and anything can happen. He survived one vote in episode 5 that seemed like he was on the bottom, but will it be enough? I don't think other players respect the kind of game Andy has played so far.
Rome Cooney
If checking off the boxes was how Survivor determined who won, Rome is playing one of the best games of Survivor so far this season. He's found and used a Beware Advantage immunity idol. He's used (correctly!) a Steal a Vote, helped pull off the biggest blindside of the season through episode 4, and played super aggressively early in the game.
He has decent Survivor instincts, but as we've seen Rome has isolated himself from the tribe. His name was brought up by Kishan Patel in episode 4, and every single person thought it was a good idea to get rid of Rome. That's quite the indictment.
Beyond that, we've also seen some of the negatives of Rome's game, including the energy, the bullying, and the lack of willingness to collaborate during the puzzle challenge.
For those reasons, I don't think Rome's game translates to a win at the end of the game. There might still be magic in his run, though. He could definitely win some individual immunities, find more advantages, stir up drama and chaos, and make a deep run, though.
Sue Smey
Sue Smey is playing a terrific game of Survivor so far! She's paired up with Caroline Vidmar and Gabe Ortis, separately. They don't seem to be an alliance of three, so to speak. It's more that Sue has forged those bonds, and she's getting a lot of protection from Caroline and Gabe on a five-person tribe.
How Sue is playing, in my opinion, is unsustainable in Survivor 47. Sue is taking some big risks, as she did with the Beware Advantage when finding the hidden immunity idol. She also has been a little bit bristly when working with some of her tribe mates and handled situations in the wrong way.
After Kyle worked against Sue earlier in the season, Sue claimed that she would never work with him again. There are going to be situations where Sue's name is thrown out, and if she's reacting like that to Kyle, who is very likable, who knows how she is going to react to those situations? She can't overreact and refuse to work with players. There are so many players in the game, and those players who are not on your side are the ones who vote for you to win $1 million. I don't think Sue is considering that when she's holding grudges against those who tried to vote her out in the first tribal council.
In episode 5, Sue was part of the winning tribe that went to the Sanctuary. There, Tiyana Hallums put the target on Gabe's back by describing how he's been playing to the other players. Look, Tiyana knows what she is doing, but she didn't say anything that wasn't true. Gabe put that target on himself, but Sue goes right to Gabe. She tells him that Tiyana threw him under the bus, which ramps up the situation from Gabe's perspective.
I don't think that type of gameplay is going to serve Sue. I'm not saying that she needed to lie to Gabe, but it's not very savvy to go right to the person you are allied with and say, "This player just blew your game up." A savvy player uses that information to their advantage.
There's going to be other times that this kind of thing happens, and Sue can't run right to Gabe and get him fired up when people are talking about him. That's just not going to fly.
So, those are the three players right now who I don't think have any chance to win Survivor 47. There are other players who I think will have a very hard time winning based on how the game has been going, but we're heading into the merge (or pre-merge) in episode 6. We should learn a lot more about how this is all going to play out!