There are only four players left in Survivor 47 heading into the second half of the season finale on Wednesday, Dec. 18. Although the remaining four players have an equal chance to make The Final Three, there are many factors to take into account when predicting who will make The Final Three and pitch their case to the jury at Final Tribal Council.
Making The Final Three is the ultimate goal in Survivor! It's literally the last thing that the players can do in the game that is completely within their control once they make the Final Four. They can't decide who the jurors vote for, but now that the fire-making challenge has become a staple in the last Tribal Council before The Final Three, every player has a chance to keep themselves in contention.
There are a lot of things to consider at this point of the game. Each player is thinking about how the jury will vote, and trying to find the best possible combination to give them a chance to win.
Looking at Sam Phalen, Rachel LaMont, Sue Smey, and Teeny Chirichillo and thinking about how the game has gone so far, a few of these players have a much better chance to make The Final Three than others. We ranked the four remaining players from least to most likely to make The Final Three.
4. Teeny Chirichillo
Teeny is probably the least likely to end up in The Final Three. The only way I see it happening is if Sam wins immunity and decides to have Sue and Rachel compete in the fire-making challenge. I don't think Sue or Rachel would take Teeny to the end.
Teeny has not been a challenge threat at all in Survivor 47, but stranger things have happened in the final immunity challenge. If Teeny wins, it makes sense for her to take Sue to the end and let Rachel and Sam go head-to-head in fire.
3. Sam Phalen
Sam has a rough road to The Final Three in my opinion. The only reason he has a better chance to make The Final Three is that he's better in challenges than Teeny, even though he's not all that good either.
So, for Sam to make The Final Three, Sam has to win the immunity challenge. I don't think any of the other three players left would pick him to take to the end. If Sue wins, she's picking Rachel or Teeny. If Rachel wins, she's picking Sue or Teeny. If Teeny wins, she's picking Sue and making Rachel and Sam fight it out in the fire-making challenge.
Even if Sam does win immunity, it's not in his best interest to allow Rachel to secure another resume-builder by beating Sue or Teeny in the fire-making challenge. So, the only thing that makes sense for Sam, if he's actively thinking about winning this game, would be for him to win immunity and then give up immunity to beat Rachel in fire. That's the only way Sam is going to win this game, which I'll probably share more about as we get closer to the finale.
If Sue or Teeny win immunity, Sam also better be begging them to let him have a chance to beat Rachel in the fire-making challenge. He needs to knock Rachel out of the game to have a real chance to win. If someone else does it, he's probably going to lose.
But, Sam is smart! So, I think he would roll the dice in fire-making for $1 million. It's the only way to stop Rachel right now.
2. Rachel LaMont
Rachel is interesting because I also think she has a really good chance to make The Final Three. First of all, she's won three individual immunity challenges, more than the other three players combined. So, she should have a really good chance to win, especially if there is some puzzle element. She is easily the best puzzle-solver of the season. It's going to take a huge effort to stop her from winning immunity!
As I'll talk about shortly, Rachel would also probably be Sue's pick to join her in The Final Three should Sue win immunity. And, even if she didn't get picked by Sue or Teeny or Sam win immunity, Rachel just feels like she would also be great at making fire. I really like her chances to be in The Final Three. I have a very good feeling about Rachel and Sue sitting together at Final Tribal.
The only thing working against Rachel is that she is the favorite right now. She's the most likely winner of Survivor 47 heading into the finale. No one wants to sit next to her, and it's been acknowledged by many recently voted-out players that they think Rachel is playing the best game. Were they honest? We'll see!
1. Sue Smey
To me, Sue seems like she has the best chance to make The Final Three. She already has an individual immunity challenge win under her belt this season. She's competed really well in most of the challenges, although it seems like lately that she hasn't been quite as close to winning as she was earlier in the season. So, Sue has a decent chance to win the challenge. She has more individual wins than Sam and Teeny, who have been basically out of every immunity challenge, despite Sam's decent record in individual reward challenges.
So, Sue could win immunity and guarantee herself a spot in The Final Three. From there, she's also going to be Rachel's pick to sit with her at Final Tribal. I think Sue would vote for Rachel either way, but Sue has made some of Rachel's moves possible, so I feel like there's some loyalty there. And, it makes sense for Rachel to bring Sue with her to the end because she can beat her.
Along with that, Sue is the lesser threat heading into the finale than Sam or Rachel. If Teeny or Sam win immunity, they could also take Sue to the end with them.
Overall, Sue has a really good chance to make The Final Three. And, I just feel like she could make fire really well. I can't recall her doing that, but it just seems like something she would know how to do.
Rachel, Sam, and Sue is most likely going to be The Final Three in Survivor 47
Playing out as many scenarios as I can think of, it seems like Rachel, Sam, and Sue are the most likely players to end up in The Final Three in Survivor 47. I'd give them all the advantage to win against Teeny in fire-making and in the immunity challenge.
But, we'll see how it goes! I did not see Ben Katzman winning the last immunity challenge in Survivor 46, and that changed the whole game.