Survivor 48 completely changed in episode 4 when the players were forced to switch tribes via random draw after the Vula tribe lost every challenge of the season. Well, even after the tribe swap, a completely new Vula tribe cratered during the immunity challenge. Thomas Krottinger was voted out, and now, the game has completely opened up.
So, who are the favorites to win Survivor 48 after the tribe swap? I have a few ideas for how the game is going to go based on how it's played out so far and which players are getting good edits, which I think is important to remember, as well.
Kyle Fraser
Kyle Fraser pulled off an epic play with the hidden immunity idol to save himself in episode 4. The California Girls Alliance targeted Kyle instead of Kamilla, which obviously was a bad decision. Shauhin Davari didn't see the immunity idol in Kyle's bad, so all three of the former Lagi players voted for Kyle. He nullified those votes with the idol and teamed up with Kamilla to vote out Thomas.
Obviously, that's one of the biggest moves of the game so far. He has to be on the shortlist of players to win after a big move like that. My only question is if a big move like that raises Kyle's threat level too high this early in the game. It will be something to watch, but he seems to have a good strategic game plan and a good partnership with Kamilla. It's going to take more than that to win Survivor, though.
Kamilla Karthigesu
Speaking of Kamilla, she also is one of the early favorites to win the game. She's playing on another level than most of these players. We saw how she gathered information from Mitch Guerra and Star Toomey, and then she used that to plant a little seed in the head of Shauhin and Joe Hunter that Thomas might not be telling the truth. She also improv'd her way out of a tough position when she ended up on the bottom of a five-player tribe. Obviously, Kyle helped her out of that jam by not throwing her under the bus, but she's playing a great game so far.
Like Kyle, Kamilla has shown how she can play pretty early. Being able to take a situation like that and flip it to her advantage, it's definitely going to raise some eyebrows in the game. That could be a good thing or a bad thing, but so far, it's a good thing!
Shauhin Davari
Despite his failure to keep his alliance together after the tribe swap and Kyle's idol play, I still consider Shauhin to be one of the favorites to win Survivor 48. He's too good in challenges, too charismatic, and too good of a social player to let one bad move get the best of him.
Honestly, I feel like Shauhin got a little complacent being on such a good tribe that he wasn't fully playing when they headed to Tribal Council for the first time. Now, that he's seeing how others are playing, I'm fully expecting Shauhin will step his game up to another level. He seems to be too good of a people person to go out like this.
Mitch Guerra
Mitch is someone I've had my eye on since the game started. He definitely has what it takes to make it to the end and win Survivor 48. In challenges, he's been excellent so far. He hasn't really had a super close alliance yet in the game, but that might be changing on his new tribe. Well, he's still on the Civa tribe, but there's a whole tribe of new players.
It looks like Mitch might have a new ally in Cedrek McFadden. I'd love it if Mitch were able to form a bond or work with a more challenge-oriented player who could act as a shield. How he's performed so far, Mitch has a real chance to win a lot of individual immunities and make a deep run in the game with the right players around him. It's only a matter of time before the other players realize just how good he is.
Mary Zheng
You know those Survivor players who feel like they have nine lives? Well, Mary Zheng is definitely one of those players. They tried to take her out in episode 2, but they worried about an idol. They tried again in episode 3, but she played her Shot in the Dark and lived to see another day. Now, she's on the Lagi tribe with a bunch of players who are willing to give up other players to vote for. David Kinne is just waiting to vote out Charity Nelms. Eva Erickson already wants Star Toomey to go home. For the first time in this game, Mary seems like she's in a position of some safety.
Based on how she's played so far, Mary feels like a player who can win Survivor in the new era. We haven't seen much strategy from Mary yet because she's been focusing on literally surviving, but that's the name of the game. Some players made bigger moves than Kenzie Petty to win Survivor 46, but Kenzie persevered through a lot of the game, won key challenges, was a swing vote when she needed to be, and won that season fair and square. Rachel LaMont ran out of options multiple times in the game until she was able to thread the needle and find her way out of situations. Then, she took control of the game as the numbers dwindled. Mary feels like she has that potential, too.
Bianca Roses
Last but not least, Bianca Roses feels like a player who has what it takes to win Survivor 48. Of course, she's in a much more fragile spot on the Civa tribe as the only former Lagi player, but like Mary, Bianca has already identified some cracks among the players on her new tribe. There's definitely some drama between Sai Hughley and Cedrek that Bianca can expose. I was so impressed with how she handled the tribe swap. She didn't panic; she stayed calm and figured out how to get ahead in the game. That's what winners do.
Overall, I just think that we haven't really seen the type of player that Bianca is yet, but she seems super knowledgeable about the game, and she feels like she's right where she needs to be to make a big push in Survivor 48. That's going to be a little more challenging without her No. 1 ally in Thomas, but hey, that's how the game goes sometimes.