Let's get straight to it because this week's episode was too high energy for a precurseor. (Spoilers ahead!)
Survivor 48 might subjectively be giving us the most exciting gameplay of the new era, but I ran the numbers (at this point someone had to!) and it's also statistically produced one of the worst early-game tribes in the history of Survivor.
And of course when I say "tribe" I'm referring to the entity in name, not in players. Because just as we all expected, episode 4 gave us a tribe swap that will truly shake up the game.
Our original three tribes had very specific ecosystems that impacted how each of our players began developing their gameplay: Lagi was all about strength and physical dominance, Civa focused on building social and meaningful relationships, and Vula was about doing whatever it takes to stay alive. You need all three of those characteristics to win Survivor. As soon as our castaways were redistributed between the tribes, it was very clear how the new groups would execute their gameplay.
The New Lagi
Lagi will definitely still be a physical threat in challenges. With David Kinne's strength, Eva Erickson and Star Toomey's agility, and Charity Nelms and Mary Zheng's puzzle mastert, as long as they can work together and no new twists come into play, I expect these five to make it to the merge.
If they do find themselves at Tribal Council, though, it's very clear and original Lagi member would be the one on the chopping block. David and Charity are going to stick together—though Charity was on the bottom back at their first camp—in order to stay "Civa strong" per the social game initially developed. While Mary appears to be the odd person out, she's flexible and willing to do whatever it takes to make it to tomorrow, so she's an easy number for someone else to pull in.
Then, you have Eva and Star, who have been at odds since day one. Eva knows Star has the Beware Advantage, and Star wants to strike Eva first, feeling like she's gunning for her. Those two will happily team up with their three new tribe members in any capacity to eliminate each other, no questions asked. And we see exactly that unfold as soon as they are all back to camp.
The New Civa
Slightly physically weaker than before, Civa might be teetering when it comes to challenges moving forward, but oddly enough, our two original tribemates—Chrissy Sarnowsky and Mitch Guerra—gained three very social players in original Lagi's Bianca Roses and original Vula's Sai Hughley and Cedrek McFadden. And while our former Vula members are not exactly on the same page anymore, it's still most likely that original Lagi is also on the bottom of this new tribe.
While I definitely foresee Sai and Bianca working together to try and vote out Cedrek, if it comes down to it, the fact is that Bianca doesn't have a vote and therefore won't have any power in the game for a while. And Chrissy knows Bianca came over with either an advantage or without a vote.
If they find themselves on their way to Tribal Council before the merge, I anticipate Sai and Bianca pulling Chrissy in to blindside Cedrek, but Chrissy will tell Sai her concerns about Bianca. Sai will confront Bianca who will likely tell her she did in fact lose her vote (but not to tell Chrissy), so they'll plan to have Chrissy pull in Mitch to ensure the numbers. But Mitch and Cedrek have bonded and both are dedicated social players. Mitch will tell Cedrek that Bianca is trying to change her fate on the bottom by throwing his name out, so they should vote for her. Then he'll turn to Chrissy and explain they should put the majority on Bianca in order to flush a potential advantage from her. Since she doesn't have protection, she will ultimately be the one to go home first from the new tribe.
The New Vula
And here's where we get to the real deep part of Survivor: nature vs. nurture. If a continuously losing tribe is rid of all its original members and given a strong set of players who have previously shown solid contributions to winning challenges, will they change their fate?
In this case, turns out the answer is no.
There's actually only one other tribe in Survivor history that has been as unlucky as Vula has been up to now. During Survivor: Marquesas (season 4), the Maraamu tribe had a 0% win average by the end of the fourth episode (which also is when they had a tribe swap) and only members of that tribe had been eliminated from the game. Maraamu had lost six challenges by this point in the game, while Vula has only lost five challenges, so I guess Maraamu still has a slight lead on lack of luck.
While there are other tribes who have continuously wound up at Tribal Council (the latest being Survivor 46's Yanu), they've all at least either won a reward or two or had fate step in with a player from another tribe going home for one reason or another, sparing them from another elimination, sparing them from the title of "unluckiest."
And once again, we have a tribe that's almost guaranteed to send a Lagi home if they lose the challenge—which they do. With both Kyle Fraser and Kamilla Karthigesu having advantages up their sleeves, it was nearly impossible for one of them to go home. The only question now is, "which California Girl are they teaming up against?"
A Bombshell Blindside
I predicted early on that Thomas Krottinger would make the merge...if he kept his day one ally Bianca with him. As soon as the switch split them up, I grew nervous for the two. But while Bianca seems to be doing an okay job finding a crack in the new Civa tribe that might protect her, Thomas flew into Vula with an assuredness that almost always ends in elimination.
Kamilla proved once again that she is a smart strategic force by coming in with a few brilliant (and slightly devious...) moves to get a read on original Lagi's Thomas, Shauhin Davari, and Joe Hunter. From acting like she'd been on the bottom and wasn't connected to Kyle at all to spilling the info that Thomas had been lying about his journey experience.
It was clear Thomas was perceived as the least trustworthy of the original Lagi tribe and therefore would be the target of this week's blindside.
Tribal Council
After lots of individual conversations with Kyle and Kamilla as well as discussions between themselves—and a bag search—Joe, Shauhin and Thomas ultimately decided they weren't worried about advantages and opted to put all three of their votes on Kyle. So they were quite surprised when he pulled out an idol, making him safe and turning the tables to send Thomas home.
So, is Vula cursed?
Honestly... probably... but also, no.
We've seen this pattern many times, especially in the new era. With very minimal starting resources, the tribe that doesn't win in the beginning can often fall into a continuous losing streak. Not only from loss of members and morale, but because of their state of living.
While the new Vula is made up of great players who are more than capable of winning challenges, they were dropped at a camp without fire and without a proper camp. While they would have been sitting easy prior to a challenge back at the Lagi or Civa camps, they were basically forced to spend that energy (both physical and mental) towards adapting to a lesser environment while also working to better it where possible.
So even with a fire lit under their backsides, they might not see a win since they still don't have fire back at their camp.
Next Time on Survivor...
Historically a merge comes at episode 6. So it's very possible we only have one more player going home before all our castaways come back together. Based on this episode's performance, I would expect it's either going to be Shauhin or Bianca depending on whether Civa or Vula loses next week's immunity challenge. It might even be time to shake things up with a double elimination, only granting immunity to one tribe next week.
But most likely I see another loss for Vula and if it'll be between Joe and Shauhin since Kyle and Kamilla have the numbers with the extra vote advantage. I think Joe will be able to connect with the two original Civa members and Shauhin will find himself on the outs.
Tune in this Wednesday at 8pm ET on CBS and Paramount+ to see if Vula takes the top spot for most challenges lost pre-merge. I personally hope they pull out a win. What about you?