Our castaways have come together on one beach, officially taking us into the individual portion of the game. Tribal lines have never been blurrier, but this season's players are painting new alliances from the fading colors.
In an episode just as unprecedented for the new era as the rest of the season has been, we somehow still know exactly what to expect from Survivor 48 as each elimination confirms the blueprint that was established in the premiere: the winner will be someone people feel didn't necessarily deceive them.
Spoilers for Survivor 48, episode 6 ahead!
The foundation for the merge
Going into this episode, we've lost five players, nearly all of whom felt blindsided, but none of which were unexpected. Let's take a look back at who we've lost up to now:
- Stephanie Berger: She definitely had the tools to go far in this game, but unfortunately did not get the chance to use them as she wasn't able to connect with fellow Vula Sai Hughley, whose day one alliance with Cedrek McFadden left Stephanie on the bottom.
- Kevin Leung: While Mary Zheng seemed like the easy vote, Kevin was left vulnerable after trusting Cedrek with his desire to vote out Sai—who he immediately ran and told—so she flipped the script by playing her idol and getting the majority to vote out Kevin.
- Justin Pioppi: I had predicted Justin could win, but alas, his game was left to fate after he lost his vote on the journey, leaving him to attempt a blindside without any power. On top of that, his day one alliance with Cedrek didn't prove to be powerful enough for him to stay in the game during a whirlwind Tribal Council.
- Thomas Krottinger: From the first episode, I said that Thomas would only stay strong in the game as long as he had his day one ally, Bianca Roses, at his side, which makes it kind of poetic that he was voted out right after a tribe switch separated them. Ultimately, he fell victim when Kyle successfully played his hidden immunity idol.
- Bianca Roses: Once again, very poetic that Bianca was eliminated directly after Thomas, though it was almost a completely opposite situation. Where Thomas refused to put his full trust in others and confirm his advantage, Bianca came across as someone the rest of the group couldn't trust because she admitted to losing her vote—they needed the balance of each other's play style to survive.
Moving into a game of "Honor and Integrity"
Every vote thus far has stemmed from the eliminated's air of "deception." Stephanie appeared not to take the game seriously. Kevin was foiled during a blindside attempt. Justin did not confide in Cedrek his loss of a vote, and Thomas double-downed on his claim that he didn't have an advantage. Bianca confided too late in Cedrek that she lost her vote.
And now the "power" alliance of the merge stems from a group of players who all believe the game should be won by strength of person and with honor and integrity. Well, almost all of them believe that...
While David Kinne, Joe Hunter, and Eva Erickson have all been straightforward in their plan to play a "clean game," leading with authenticity and transparency, both Kyle Fraser and Shauhin Davari have demonstrated they might not be as eager to give up the strategic side of the game.
And honestly, that's the best spot to be in.
Kyle has already proven he's good at playing the game—hiding his idol from the former Lagi members after the tribe swap and successfully blindsiding Thomas. With his secret day one partnership with Kamilla Karthigesu, and securing the first individual immunity of the season, Kyle is a force to be reckoned with. And if he continues to play as smart as he has been, I expect we'll see him in the finale, especially since I already predicted he'll win the season.
Shauhin came out of the gate showcasing the mind of a great strategic player. Though he wasn't willing to cross the villainous lines that Thomas brought up on occasion, he's still clever enough to privately weave the web he needs to get further in the game. And while he hasn't done a big move yet, I think we might see one swiftly on the horizon, since he was one of the first people to bring up separately Eva and Joe.
The vote confirms merged ideals
To get a little philosophical on you, with the pre-jury elimination of Charity Nelms, we are officially riding Chaucer's "familiarity breeds contempt" wave.
People opted to keep Sai (knowing how strategic she can be) and Eva (who everyone knows has an idol) and eliminate Charity, someone who showed signs of possibly being a threat down the road. I could foresee the next couple of votes leaning this way as well: keep those who have already shown us how they play and put the people who haven't publicly proven who they are on the jury.
With this in mind, I might imagine the next torch snuffed belonging to Mitch Guerra, since this is the second time he's been on the outs with a vote. But he is also an incredibly physical player and has the potential to win immunity, so he has the power to keep himself in the game, if he keeps performing well in challenges.
So who's will win Survivor 48?
Based on how the season is going and who we've seen transformative moves from, I could see one of these five walking away with the 1 million dollars:
- Kyle Fraser: Obviously he's been my day one pick and so far he's played a game that has not deterred me from this prediction. Keep it up, Kyle!
- Sai Hughley: This season's cat with nine lives, Sai—in all best gameplay honesty—should have been voted out first based on her strategic threat level alone. But despite being present at 83% of Tribal Councils and having her name written down at every single one, she's still here. It seems people are using her as a shield currently, but I could totally see a world where she sets herself up for a victorious win, even without playing the best social game.
- Eva Erickson: Despite her initial worries coming into the game, she's actually playing an incredible social strategy. The only member of the "honor and integrity" pack that comes off as authentic and not forcing an ideal, I could see her making it to the end, but she needs to get rid of her idol sooner rather than later—and make sure everyone knows it was a gift, not a find—to get that target off her back.
- Star Toomey: Slowly, but surely, Star moved from having an attack strategy at the bottom of the Lagi tribe to making social connections that have uplifted those around her. But she's also clearly not afraid to be blunt in her gameplay, handing out Charity's name at the merge reward feast. She could definitely be a contender for the title of Sole Survivor.
- Kamilla Karthigesu: If Sai is this season's cat, Kamilla is the snake in the grass—but like, a really cute garter snake that has the ability to befriend people while still slithering around undetected. Her alliance with Kyle will continue to be extremely beneficial for both parties, but in the end, she'll need to blindside him in order to claim the win. If they go to the end together, his public plays will secure him more votes.
This is the most excited I've been about a new era season of Survivor and most of that is due to the fact that it really is anyone's game. Almost everyone still on the island has the potential to get to the end and win, and with multiple people stating this episode was the welcome wagon before the war, we know it's going to just keep getting better and better!
New episodes ofSurvivor 48 air every Wednesday at 8 pm ET on CBS and Paramount+.